Reading Into The Form, The Royal's Look a Good Bet

                     

PERENNIAL headline maker Luis Suarez has scored a hat-trick in the last two meetings with Norwich one of those was in Liverpool’s 5-2 victory at Carrow Road in September.

Norwich kept their first clean sheet since John Ruddy got injured against Newcastle last weekend but rarely threatened with a clear cut chance in a dour 0-0.

With exception to the 3-1 loss to Aston Villa, Brendan Rogers side have only conceded once in seven games at home since September.

Norwich have fallen behind in seven of their away matches and have also been behind at half time in six. Liverpool have done the half time/full time in the lead in 6/8 of their victories so are taken to do the HT/FT at 5/6 generally.

      

A NUMBER of years ago Diomanzi Kamara became a Fulham hero in this game, he scored twice to pull Fulham who were 20 minutes from being swallowed by relegation. In fairness to the Cottagers who usually have a poor record when away from the bank of the Thames, The Etihad is one place they have a decent record.

Last season was the first time they lost a game here since 2006. Manchester City came from behind to overhaul Martin Jol’s side in their meeting in late September and on recent form you would have to expect them to win again.

Vincent Kompany won his appeal against a red card received at Arsenal but City are without Yaya Toure who is on International Duty with Ivory Coast for the next few weeks. Augero is a doubt with the hamstring injury that has kept out since New Year’s Day. Fulham have no new injury concerns.

The London side have been within a goal or drew with all of the top 6 bar Tottenham and I think backing them with the +2 handicap will give you a good run for your money at 11/10 and the +1 Handicap Draw at 3/1 both with Bet365.

ALAN Pardew can be thankful for his luck for once this season. Senegal were disqualified from the 2013 African Cup on Nations and Shola Ameobi was not selected by Nigeria so he will have first team forwards available.

Cheick Tiote is absent on account of the Africa competition and Ben Arfa, Danny Simpson and Steven Taylor are still injured so the Geordies are still weakened considerably. They have only taken eight of a possible 39 points in the past three months.

Reading on the other hand were never better, I said last week their game against West Brom would probably not be great but I couldn’t have been more wrong, it was a fantastic match where Reading scored three late goals to perform a heroic escape with a win.

The reverse tie finished 2-2 earlier in the campaign with Newcastle relying on Demba Ba for their brace. Reading have an extremely poor away record, picking up only two points on the road, one of those at basement club QPR.

Reading have scored 70% of their goals at home but will have their tails up after last week and may throw caution to the wind. Without Ba and Ben Arfa Newcastle will be relying heavily on Cisse for goals and it remains to be seen can he find them.

There is not a whole lot between these in the table and The Royals will not have a better opportunity to get an away victory especially as they would feel they should have won the reverse fixture.

The verdict is Reading Draw No Bet at 5/2 with Paddy Power.

WIGAN got a much needed confidence boosting win over League One Bournemouth in the FA Cup in midweek while Sunderland suffered a disappointing loss to Bolton.

The Black Cats won this 1-0 earlier on in the term and have been doing ok since mid-December winning four times, Wigan have won only once in the league in same time..

Martin O’Neill’s side have a mixed away record, but their record against bottom half sides reads DWDLWDLWWW. Compare this to only one win against top half opposition.

Wigan really suffer from the January blues, they have only won a lowly three league games during the month in their seven seasons in the division, and all 3 of those wins came against sides that are no longer in the top flight.

On that evidence Sunderland +1 Handicap 4/6 generally and Draw No Bet at 13/8 with Bet365 look solid shouts.

BOTH sides are hampered by injury but QPR could win that race with a number of their concerns possible to return.

West Ham fared ok but ultimately lost out against Man United in the FA Cup but QPR have done well also, winning their cup game and getting a win and a draw in their last two league games, also against London rivals Chelsea and Tottenham respectively.

Harry Redknapp appears to have worked his special ability of turning around a plummeting club and get them marching together to safety.

Sam Alardyce’s side won at Loftus Road in October but QPR are a better team since the turn of the year. If Chamahk can rediscover his old form he could be a big player for West Ham after moving on loan.

I wouldn’t expect a classic but West Ham are not easy to get the better of at Upton Park and a draw would be the most likely result all things considered. But I would not venture a bet.

TODAY’S visitors have gone from formidable to embarrassing in their last three league games, they scored effectively 4 of the oppositions goals for them in their last two home games and were wiped at Man City.

 They have failed to score and conceded seven recently, admittedly against Champions League sides.

The Swans are enjoying a decent time of things, they are very difficult to break down. Peter Crouch scored twice to give The Potters victory in September and the two clubs have very similar records since, losing only the occasional game and drawing plenty of games.

The Welsh side won this game last season but Stoke will be determined to get back to the formidable manner in which they operated for most of the season.

It is hard to expect a goalfest, Stoke’s away games usually have two goals or less, both Manchester sides and Wigan are the only sides to put more than one past Asmir Begovic.

Under 2.5 goals looks highly likely on all evidence but something tells me that Tony Pulis could send out a more attacking side this weekend and Stoke can bounce back. An extremely hard game to call as you would expect with a point separating them in the table.

Both sides seem to enjoy drawing and why fight the urge, get on at 12/5 with Bet365.

The home side have been playing good stuff recently so it is surprising to see they have lost their last three, especially as they could have been expected to win both. Aston Villa on the other hand it is no surprise at all to see they are winless since before the Christmas programme.

Romelu Lukaku has been a tough opponent this season and scored twice last week. Steve Clarke will take plenty of positives from last week’s game but will also be eager to see his side more resolute at the back.

This is a derby game and may be what Villa need to try and get them going again. The sides drew 1-1 in their first meeting this year but Paul Lambert would probably grasp your arm off at an offer of such a result this time.

Villa are the leagues joint lowest scorers but if there is a chink in West Brom’s armour it is their weakened midfield through injury/international duty.

All things considered West Brom are expected to take all three points as their local rivals have not beaten them for the last two seasons. 8/11 is a about the right price with Bet365 that the Baggies will not disappoint three times in a row.

Tough to Call in the Football, a hotly contested weekend of games

QPR V Tottenham

A London Derby where Harry Redknapp faces the club that sacked him last June. The home side pulled off the shock of the season when beating the then in form Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham won this meeting earlier in the year after coming from a goal down. QPR won this corresponding fixture last season on their late survival charge and they would greatly welcome back to back wins.

Spurs though have scored in every away game since they lost here in April while QPR really need to grease their goal-scoring hinges if they are to climb of the bottom rung of the table.

Rangers held out and caught out Chelsea but while they may manage it for a while here I think AVBs side can get the better of them.

The Half-time/Full-Time to be Draw/Tottenham at 4/1 with Paddy Power looks great value and a win for Spurs at 10/11 with William Hill is too good to pass up.

Aston Villa V Southampton

Safe at this point to call this a relegation battle with both sides less than a point from the drop zone. Both performed well in their last league games but both were well beaten in their recent cup games.

Southampton got their first win of the season by thrashing Villa 4-1 at St Mary’s and given the current form of Villa you would not altogether rule out a repeat result. Following five straight away losses for Nigel Adkins side at the start of the season they have taken at least a point from three of their last four on the road.

The Saints have a few injury worries coming into this so could be vulnerable if Aston Villa can put their game face on.

The historical record between these two clubs is very even and this game should be no different, Southampton are on a run of draws and could extend that here.

Everton V Swansea

On a weekend of what on paper are very tight games to call this one is no different. These two are among the hardest teams to beat in the division.

Everton inflicted on Swansea their heaviest defeat of the season with a 3-0 win at the Liberty Stadium. Michael Laudrup’s side have been better defensively away from home and have managed more wins on the road than in Wales, and transferred that to the Capital One Cup with a win at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.

Everton lost their unbeaten home record to Chelsea the last time they played at Goodison Park but are having a great season in the main.

I expect this game to be hotly contested from the off and has the potential to be a fantastic game. Everton have more in attack than Swansea and should be able to break them down at some point, one goal could be enough to win this and I believe Everton will be the ones to get it. Swansea have not scored against Everton in three games since their promotion and Everton to win to nil at 7/4 is the value.

Fulham V Wigan

The Cottagers gained a somewhat surprise win over West Brom at the Hawthorns to put an end to a tough run. Wigan were, to quote Mick McCarthy from a few years back, “absolutely mullered” by Manchester United on their last league appearance.

Martin Jol’s side won this meeting in September and have a very good record against the Lattics who have not beaten the London side since 2006. Fulham have scored exactly twice in this fixture for the past four seasons.

This campaign the two sides between them have played in 11 games that finished 2-1 including their first meeting this term. I expect a similar result here again for two sides that are usually very bound by trends.

Fulham at Evens to win the game at 15/2 for a 2-1 correct score are the call.

Norwich V Newcastle

Both teams are on a run they would dearly love to end. Newcastle have lost nine of their last 11 league matches and are without a win away from home and Norwich have lost their last 4 since going 10 unbeaten.

The Canaries are five points ahead of the Magpies in the table and deservedly so. Alan Pardew could welcome Cabaye and Ben Arfa back into the side after injury and following the departure of star man Demba Ba they will be needed. Norwich striker Grant Holt could be fit to start following two games out with a hamstring injury.

Newcastle won their early season meeting 1-0 with Ba getting the all important goal but a lot has happened in both sides’ seasons since.

Liverpool, Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs are the only ones who took full points from Carrow Road since 2011 so that tells you the task Newcastle face.

This game will depend on who makes it back fit for both sides but at this point Norwich look the stronger. They can end their run of league defeats after their confidence boosting FA Cup win and are a good price at 5/4 to do so.

Reading V West Brom

If you are picking which game to watch on the red button this will be the lowest in your order of preference. The Royals have the odd island of good form in their ocean of harsh reality this season, one of those came around Christmas time but their work is cut out for them here.

It is no accident that West Brom are only three points away from the Europa League places. They were surprise losers against Fulham on New Year’s Day but would be even more surprise losers if they went down here.

The Baggies beat Reading 1-0 at The Hawthorns in September but historically have a rather poor record at The Madejski with only one win in 9 visits. With that in mind a bit of insurance for betting purposes may be wise and West Brom Draw No Bet at 8/11 with Hills is the verdict.

Stoke City V Chelsea

The Potters have a reputation of taking the scalps of the bigger sides at the Brittannia but Chelsea are not one of those. Since 2008 they have only taken two of a possible 27 points versus Chelsea who have taken the lion’s share of 23 in their meetings and Tony Pulis’s side managed the meagre 3 goals in all their meetings in those years.

One thing that will be hugely in favour of the home side is the absence of Petr Cech through injury, he has coped so well over the seasons with the shelling that is usually received when playing Stoke.

Rafa Benetiz has come under fire from fans and media once again following their defeat by Swansea at home in the League Cup and QPR in the league.

It is a mild surprise to see Chelsea odds on to win at Stoke who are unbeaten this season at home. It took a late Ashley Cole goal to gain victory in their meeting in September and a dour affair is almost assured.

Only once have Chelsea loose against Stoke and handed out a walloping but mostly the great Didier Drogba was the match winner. Now without a forward player of his status and suitability to the opposition they could struggle.

Under 2.5 goals at 7/10 and Stoke with a goal headstart at 17/20 with Stoke sponsors Bet365 both look worthy of a punt.

Sunderland V West Ham 

As I alluded to earlier in the piece we have games that are very hard to call and this may be the hardest on Saturday. In 66 meetings since 1923 Sunderland have one win more than West Ham in their encounters. It is the London side who hold the advantage in the league table though.

They drew a goal apiece 4 months ago and both drew in the FA Cup last weekend, West Hams was more substantial as theirs came against Man United. The return of a number of players from injury and suspension since their last league outing has boosted Sam Allardyce’s side.

Martin O’Neill has plenty of injury worries especially defensively and West Ham’s good set piece ability could expose that. It is a game that is too tough to call given that Sunderland have home advantage and no matter what the result it would be no surprise as anything could happen.

Market Rasen Preview Tuesday



Richard Johnson could be smiling tomorrow
with a good book of rides
photo: racing post



THE OPENER at 2:20 has a field of seven where a case can be made for all, conversely it is easy enough to oppose them all.

Enroller was a group horse on the flat and has run respectable in his last two hurdle runs. He is Noel Fehily’s only ride on the day, he has to give weight all round and may have to settle for minor money.

Langley’s best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground but he has only had 4 runs for Tim Vaughan and his record is F112. He has apparently improved for the addition of a tongue strap and with Richard Johnson back on board he is a player.

Osgood is a rare Mick Channon jumps representative. He was second to the Pipe’s “good thing”, Katchmore lost time. He appears here on the same mark. His best NH form is on a sound surface and he should be in the shakeup in an all round competitive affair.

An incredible tight market for the 2:50 with Union Island, having his first run over hurdles for Brian Ellison, the outsider of the quintet. He has been disappointing since returning from a break and is best watched.

The favourite at time of writing is Royal Entourage. He is up the weights after racking up a hat trick and is a leading contender again.

Hoback Junction was highly tried when with Lucy Wadham and ran ok last time to finish third. He appeared to lack fitness when fading late on but with that run under his belt he should be a major contender.

Presenting Ace and D’Gigi will need to show more than they have already to win but are by no means out of the reckoning.

Small but competitive fields are the order of the day. Not one for the each way punter.

The 3:20 is another tough contest to unravel. O Crotaigh has three wins and a nose margin second place at the venue and despite being six pounds higher than his last victory further progress is not ruled out from him back at this track.

His front running tactics should stand him in good stead in a small field. It is not hard to see why Midnight Sail is favourite. He is back in form following a layoff and went close on his most recent run behind a rival completing a four timer.

The step up in distance should also suit and his hurdle rating suggests that he is well in here.

A five horse class 5 chase where only one horse has a win over fences in the UK sounds like it should be straightforward at 3:50. But that horse, KERCABELLEC, is 14 years old, seven pounds out if the handicap and has had more horses finish in front of him than behind him this season.

No other horse jumps from the page with only slight appeal from the favourite Sacre Toi.

Kercabellec returned to the winners enclosure twice this time last year to end a four year drought. His mark is at the same lowly level here. He has gained five of his seven wins in March, the trainer has his horses in excellent form and at 20-1 he is worth a punt in an absolutely terrible looking race.

With absolutely nothing doing in the 4:20 and without some information not on the form book the only option I can see if getting financially involved is Charles. Whether or not he comes back fit after a Winter break is a question but if he does he should be better than the greater majority of these.

Dawn Commander (r): during his days in Ireland
photo: irishracing

If you are at Market Rasen and asking yourself will this day ever end, well there is just two more races and at last we see a couple of horses that can run faster than the ambulance.

Dawn Commander contested the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but was unable to make a serious impact into proceedings. He previously was just behind weekend winner Golden Call when conceding weight at Bangor in February.

On that form he will be very tough to beat. Finnegan Paddy has been consistent against some handy rivals all Winter but he is yet to get his head in front so is opposed.

Steve Gollings does well at the Licolnshire venue Lincolnshire  , he saddles All That Remains. The horse has not run over 3 miles since winning a Point-to-Point in Ireland. It does appear as if the step up should suit however as he was outpaced recently over 2m1f at Doncaster.

He looks the most potent threat to Dawn Commander.Lincolnshi

Jonny Rye was just denied by last year’s Champion Bumber second Destroyer Deployed as he was third at Southwell earlier this month, a repeat of that should see him be hard to pass again.

The Bumper at 5:20 concludes the action. House Party was well beaten last time at Newbury following a very promising debut behind Call Back who has done ok since. Getting a four year old allowance he should go close to winning.

Scarlet Fire who’s penalty is negated by the riders claim must hold a strong chance again. And of the debutants Scarlet Fire looks the pick for a combination that had a winner in the last few weeks.

BEST BETS: DAWN COMMANDER, KERCABELLEC

Cheltenham Day 1 - insert appropriate pun here

"Down the Hill they come"
photo: drawbias.com

TAKE A deep breath, to ready for both the roar and the long week of 27 races, many hours of study and analysis that lays ahead. Cheltenham the eyes of the world are upon you, the hopes and prayers of punters everywhere march with you.

So let’s get straight down to business

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

I find it rather staggering that there is so little Grade1 form on offer. Only Colour Squadron, Galileo’s Choice and Dylan Ross have close up finishes as runners up at the top level.

That being said they are all easily enough opposed as either the form has not worked out or the trainers do not do particularly well at the festival.

It is noteworthy that Davy Russell has opted for Trifolium, this one has been competing in intermediate grade on a few runs this year and easily took a soft looking Grade2 last time. If he is as solid on faster going we will see but could go well for the same combo that brought us Weapons Amnesty.

Darlan currently heads the market but on his best run (last time) he fell two out. That leaves us with too many questions but if he travels like that in this race he will surely be among the first few home.

Steps to Freedom absolutely ran away with an Aintree bumper last year with only the re-opposing Montbazon hanging onto his coat tails. The Jessica Harrington trained horse won two battling finishes on his most recent starts, if you can call them recent as he was last seen in November (assumingly on account of having raced on the flat during the Summer).

Prospect Wells was not far behind that day but if he is among the outsiders I do not see how Steps to Freedom is so much shorter in the market.

I think he will go well but will be found wanting at the end of the race.

TETLAMI gets the nod in the festival opener; before we even consider his form he represents a top combination of Henderson and Geraghty and is 14-1, which is big for them.

He won the same race at Kempton at Christmas as Menorah did en route to victory in 2010, he jumped very fast and smooth, travelled well and when he was asked for something at the end he willingly gave it. He comes here quite unexposed compared to others but the price is too good to ignore.

If you fancy chancing an outsider you could do worse than Distant Memories, a useful flat performer, he was going well until he made a horrendous mistake at the second last at Naas when behind Midnight Game and Dylan Ross but he could have gone very close otherwise.

ARKLE NOVICE’S CHASE

No matter what you think he beat you must say that Sprinter Sacre has been breathtaking in his chasing career to date. We could well be looking at an easy winner of the Novice Championship.

Cue Card (right); Can he fulfill his promise?
photo: sportinglife.co.uk

However he was behind Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme Novice where he faded late on. A year older and having had a breathing operation nothing has laid a glove on him since and Barry Geraghty who has well over half a century of Grade1 winners says he could be the best he has ridden.

Menorah has to prove his jumping can hold up but as a Supreme Novice winner also he must hold a claim.

Like Sprinter Sacre, the extra year in age appears to have benefitted CUE CARD greatly. He could only manage fourth when favourite behind Al Ferof last year.

He has always been touted as a top future chaser by connections and his form over fences cannot be knocked. The Tizzard’s six year old represents the best value alternative to Sprinter Sacre in a small field.

JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE

A race that is strong on stats, and although I do not like to adhere to them too strictly it helps to narrow this field of 19.

Quantitativeeasing heads the field after winning at Cheltenham in December over 2m5f. He has festival form also when second on this card in 2011 behind Divers. It would be a great achievement to win off 11st 12lbs but place money is probably most likely.

Hold On Julio has been all the rage for this contest since his Sandown win in early January but is available at a price of 13/2. Alan King and Robert Thornton have won this twice in the past decade and the lightly raced 9-y-o holds strong claims despite his sketchy jumping on occasion.

Our Mick has cannoned up the weights over the Winter and holds an each way shout, Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan are all probably too old according to statistics at least.

There is a former runner up of this contest in The Package. He has not ran in over 16 months but given his trainer that is not as major a concern as it could be. Baile Anrai is consistent, he has two wins and two falls in chases, he was still in contention in a very strong race when falling three fences from the finish and could be more than a lively outsider here.

Fruity O Rooney likewise, he was running a very good race before almost unseating at the last in the Sky Bet Chase and has only once been out of the first three over fences.

It is an absolutely wide open race and to make a selection I would chance PENTIFFIC. His rider gave him no mercy last time and he tired just before the last where he fell. He had not touched a twig before that and they did break the course record there over two furlongs further with Venetia Williams’ inmate cutting out the running.

The former Australlian trained animal is a tentative selection in a wide open race with The Package the other preferred option.

CHAMPION HURDLE

There will be no beating about the bush here- HURRICANE FLY will win barring, god forbid, injury. This year’s race is not a patch on last years and Willie Mullins’s superstar even looks value at 10/11.

No hot air with Hurricane
photo: guardian.co.uk

Zarkandar will have to improve to beyond his Triumph Hurdle win to challenge and has to overcome the poor record of five year olds. Binocular won a fairly poor renewal in 2010 and cannot be trusted and I think he could be a place lay if you like that type of bet.

Rock on Ruby and Oscars Well are closely matched on last year’s Neptune Hurdle form and they could fill the minor spots.

THE UNDERCARD

The Cross County is unravelable, the usual safe option of going with Enda Bolger does not look as easy this year with Garde Champetre beaten on all races this year (December win fell into his lap as he was well down the field when the leading group took the wrong course).

A NEW STORY will be the most senior contender at this year’s festival and given his excellent record over this course and is a good bet to make the first four yet again.

The Mares hurdle will probably see Quevega 10 lengths clear on the bridle yet again but I see little reason to get involved financially in it.

A rapid day one will have even the most enthusiastic of punter tired by the time the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase rolls around.

A field of 20 is not too easy to narrow, there was only 14 lengths between places first and tenth last season and I envisage a similar scenario this time around. TRIOLO D’ALENE, Bless The Wings and Hunt Ball are vying for favouritism.

The last mentioned has done nothing but improve all season he started off on a rating of 69 and seven races and six wins later he is up to 142.

Barry Geraghty has been bullish about the chance of Triolo D’Alene and he could be well ahead of this grade and is still improving, only five years old and if he is not in the shake-up it would be a surprise.

Bless The Wings has plenty going for him but may need more to win, course form is a plus however. 

Going Wrong is not something that you would do if you followed Davy Russell and Ferdy Murphy when they combine at Prestbury Park. The 9-y-o has been brought about quietly much like last year’s winner Divers and must be respected.

Triolo D'Alene has promise
photo: Getty images

Finally Quincy Des Pictons beat a few respectable opponents by a good distance at Chepstow over Christmas. He has been transformed by the move to new trainer Alan Jones and if he can show his form on a faster surface at 20-1 he could be worth a small saver.

BEST BETS: TRIOLO D’ALENE (EW),  and it’s obvious but Im going to do the cardinal sin of tipping – giving an odds on shot - and include HURRICANE FLY.

Doncaster Preview

Town Moor: Good midweek card

IT IS good to see a day of good ground racing at Doncaster as the build up to the festival sees many putting in their final run within the next week before Cheltenham.

All seven races on Town Moor have something to get at least mildly excited about.

A Juvenile Hurdle opens proceedings at 1:55. Ardlui is
the only winner lining up. The form of his two hurdle runs is very strong with two good quality subsequent winners ahead of him when third on debut.

From his win there has been good performances from the second placed Tango De Juilley as well as a handicap win from the third placed horse.

Black Pond will likely improve for his debut run but the main challenge to Alan King’s charge will probably come from Eagle Rock he has bumped into some decent animals in his three hurdle races.

He had weekend Sandown winner Bourne 18 lengths behind on his last run and his debut conqueror Countrywide Flame has been placed twice at the highest level since. In between he was placed in a C&D Grade 2.

It’s impossible to recommend anything but the obvious here. Alan King’s stable is in great form and Ardlui may leave Eagle Rock to be the bridesmaid yet again.

The 32red Casino Beginners´ Chase looks to concern just a couple for win purposes but there are currently eight so there is each way possibilities.

As to what ground suits Aikman best is a question, he appears to go on anything but before last time I had been of the opinion that he prefers softer going. He flopped badly last time but this is a good opportunity to bounce back.

Aikman can bounce back
(Photo: turfpix.com)

He had a good season as a novice hurdler but has not yet shown that over the larger obstacles, arguably his best performance over fences this term was over an inadequate two miles at Carlisle on his chasing debut.

He can be forgiven the run last time and is the one to beat. Master Fiddle was way underpriced last time when well beaten and I do not see his situation getting any better this time. He was placed on this card last year and a place is likely the best he will muster again.

Quentin Collonges has only made it to the track twice in the last two seasons but was a good hurdler in 09/10. Henry Daly does well at Doncaster and this son of Dom Alco is feared most.

The Cockney Mackem has made the frame in all completed starts but with the stable not at the peak of its powers minors is probably the best he can hope for.

The 3:00 Mirror Punters Club E B F "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle has a competitive field as Paul Nicholls told us to expect in novice hurdles following the number of abandoned meetings a few weeks ago.

Oscar Nominee, despite finishing last of three on his most recent run was less than three lengths behind Supreme hopeful Cinders and Ashes on heavy ground. He was a 27 length winner previously and the return to better ground is the one to beat for a top team.

The form of The Weatherman’s runs has not worked out and more is needed here under a penalty. Presenting Ace came home at a respectful distance behind some useful rivals on his previous runs and can make the frame here.

It is worth keeping an eye on the hurdling debutants and Wordy’s Boy could be a good each way option following his return to action in January.

The past few renewals of the 3:30 32red Veterans´ Handicap Chase have been interesting and this one is no different. The current favourite is Mark The Book but he is plenty short enough for a horse who has had all his wins on heavy going.

Wogan’s only defeat at the course came in this race last year. He has yet to complete for new trainer Tom Symonds but is now 10 pounds below his last winning mark. This looks a good opportunity for Faasel but he appears to peak in the top races but note any market support here.

Auroras Encore missed last season but if he comes on for his reappearance holds strong claims at a big price despite conceding weight. It looks like it will not be long before Atouchbetweenacara can gain a victory as plummeting mark and a return to better ground ever enhances his chance. However the 11 year old only has two wins to his name.

David Pipe’s Faasel represents a decent ‘bet to nothing’ in a red hot contest.

Market support should be noted for Faasel
(Picture: pixmule.com)

We have a handicap hurdle at 4:05 where David Pipe’s Decoy heads the field. He was well beaten last time in the Lanzarotte but a better run is expected back in class 3 company. Corkage has been in great form over the Winter and has two wins and a place from three runs here, but it is possible that the handicapper has him for the moment.

Distime was a beaten favourite on his handicap debut but better can be expected this time but at 6-1 he is short enough. Bob ‘N’ You  has some useful form but may need this after 16 months off, however the stable can prepare them fresh.

Dawn Commander was staying on the last twice and as a PTP winner the step up to 3 miles will suit. The first time visor saw Storm Survivor bolt in at Plumpton but is up 14 pounds for that.

Patsy Finnegan and Ely Brown are others to consider at bigger prices.

As is always the case with Hunter’s chases it is best to focus on the top of the market at 4:40. Lorikarad is the most obvious choice.

‘Stick to what you know’ is the call in the Bumper and Kaysersberg has the best form as well as being a C&D winner and is easy to side with. This Is Me was well beaten on his debut here but may be worth another chance after repeating the journey from Newmarket.

BEST BETS – AIKMAN, FAASEL