Reading Into The Form, The Royal's Look a Good Bet

                     

PERENNIAL headline maker Luis Suarez has scored a hat-trick in the last two meetings with Norwich one of those was in Liverpool’s 5-2 victory at Carrow Road in September.

Norwich kept their first clean sheet since John Ruddy got injured against Newcastle last weekend but rarely threatened with a clear cut chance in a dour 0-0.

With exception to the 3-1 loss to Aston Villa, Brendan Rogers side have only conceded once in seven games at home since September.

Norwich have fallen behind in seven of their away matches and have also been behind at half time in six. Liverpool have done the half time/full time in the lead in 6/8 of their victories so are taken to do the HT/FT at 5/6 generally.

      

A NUMBER of years ago Diomanzi Kamara became a Fulham hero in this game, he scored twice to pull Fulham who were 20 minutes from being swallowed by relegation. In fairness to the Cottagers who usually have a poor record when away from the bank of the Thames, The Etihad is one place they have a decent record.

Last season was the first time they lost a game here since 2006. Manchester City came from behind to overhaul Martin Jol’s side in their meeting in late September and on recent form you would have to expect them to win again.

Vincent Kompany won his appeal against a red card received at Arsenal but City are without Yaya Toure who is on International Duty with Ivory Coast for the next few weeks. Augero is a doubt with the hamstring injury that has kept out since New Year’s Day. Fulham have no new injury concerns.

The London side have been within a goal or drew with all of the top 6 bar Tottenham and I think backing them with the +2 handicap will give you a good run for your money at 11/10 and the +1 Handicap Draw at 3/1 both with Bet365.

ALAN Pardew can be thankful for his luck for once this season. Senegal were disqualified from the 2013 African Cup on Nations and Shola Ameobi was not selected by Nigeria so he will have first team forwards available.

Cheick Tiote is absent on account of the Africa competition and Ben Arfa, Danny Simpson and Steven Taylor are still injured so the Geordies are still weakened considerably. They have only taken eight of a possible 39 points in the past three months.

Reading on the other hand were never better, I said last week their game against West Brom would probably not be great but I couldn’t have been more wrong, it was a fantastic match where Reading scored three late goals to perform a heroic escape with a win.

The reverse tie finished 2-2 earlier in the campaign with Newcastle relying on Demba Ba for their brace. Reading have an extremely poor away record, picking up only two points on the road, one of those at basement club QPR.

Reading have scored 70% of their goals at home but will have their tails up after last week and may throw caution to the wind. Without Ba and Ben Arfa Newcastle will be relying heavily on Cisse for goals and it remains to be seen can he find them.

There is not a whole lot between these in the table and The Royals will not have a better opportunity to get an away victory especially as they would feel they should have won the reverse fixture.

The verdict is Reading Draw No Bet at 5/2 with Paddy Power.

WIGAN got a much needed confidence boosting win over League One Bournemouth in the FA Cup in midweek while Sunderland suffered a disappointing loss to Bolton.

The Black Cats won this 1-0 earlier on in the term and have been doing ok since mid-December winning four times, Wigan have won only once in the league in same time..

Martin O’Neill’s side have a mixed away record, but their record against bottom half sides reads DWDLWDLWWW. Compare this to only one win against top half opposition.

Wigan really suffer from the January blues, they have only won a lowly three league games during the month in their seven seasons in the division, and all 3 of those wins came against sides that are no longer in the top flight.

On that evidence Sunderland +1 Handicap 4/6 generally and Draw No Bet at 13/8 with Bet365 look solid shouts.

BOTH sides are hampered by injury but QPR could win that race with a number of their concerns possible to return.

West Ham fared ok but ultimately lost out against Man United in the FA Cup but QPR have done well also, winning their cup game and getting a win and a draw in their last two league games, also against London rivals Chelsea and Tottenham respectively.

Harry Redknapp appears to have worked his special ability of turning around a plummeting club and get them marching together to safety.

Sam Alardyce’s side won at Loftus Road in October but QPR are a better team since the turn of the year. If Chamahk can rediscover his old form he could be a big player for West Ham after moving on loan.

I wouldn’t expect a classic but West Ham are not easy to get the better of at Upton Park and a draw would be the most likely result all things considered. But I would not venture a bet.

TODAY’S visitors have gone from formidable to embarrassing in their last three league games, they scored effectively 4 of the oppositions goals for them in their last two home games and were wiped at Man City.

 They have failed to score and conceded seven recently, admittedly against Champions League sides.

The Swans are enjoying a decent time of things, they are very difficult to break down. Peter Crouch scored twice to give The Potters victory in September and the two clubs have very similar records since, losing only the occasional game and drawing plenty of games.

The Welsh side won this game last season but Stoke will be determined to get back to the formidable manner in which they operated for most of the season.

It is hard to expect a goalfest, Stoke’s away games usually have two goals or less, both Manchester sides and Wigan are the only sides to put more than one past Asmir Begovic.

Under 2.5 goals looks highly likely on all evidence but something tells me that Tony Pulis could send out a more attacking side this weekend and Stoke can bounce back. An extremely hard game to call as you would expect with a point separating them in the table.

Both sides seem to enjoy drawing and why fight the urge, get on at 12/5 with Bet365.

The home side have been playing good stuff recently so it is surprising to see they have lost their last three, especially as they could have been expected to win both. Aston Villa on the other hand it is no surprise at all to see they are winless since before the Christmas programme.

Romelu Lukaku has been a tough opponent this season and scored twice last week. Steve Clarke will take plenty of positives from last week’s game but will also be eager to see his side more resolute at the back.

This is a derby game and may be what Villa need to try and get them going again. The sides drew 1-1 in their first meeting this year but Paul Lambert would probably grasp your arm off at an offer of such a result this time.

Villa are the leagues joint lowest scorers but if there is a chink in West Brom’s armour it is their weakened midfield through injury/international duty.

All things considered West Brom are expected to take all three points as their local rivals have not beaten them for the last two seasons. 8/11 is a about the right price with Bet365 that the Baggies will not disappoint three times in a row.

Tough to Call in the Football, a hotly contested weekend of games

QPR V Tottenham

A London Derby where Harry Redknapp faces the club that sacked him last June. The home side pulled off the shock of the season when beating the then in form Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham won this meeting earlier in the year after coming from a goal down. QPR won this corresponding fixture last season on their late survival charge and they would greatly welcome back to back wins.

Spurs though have scored in every away game since they lost here in April while QPR really need to grease their goal-scoring hinges if they are to climb of the bottom rung of the table.

Rangers held out and caught out Chelsea but while they may manage it for a while here I think AVBs side can get the better of them.

The Half-time/Full-Time to be Draw/Tottenham at 4/1 with Paddy Power looks great value and a win for Spurs at 10/11 with William Hill is too good to pass up.

Aston Villa V Southampton

Safe at this point to call this a relegation battle with both sides less than a point from the drop zone. Both performed well in their last league games but both were well beaten in their recent cup games.

Southampton got their first win of the season by thrashing Villa 4-1 at St Mary’s and given the current form of Villa you would not altogether rule out a repeat result. Following five straight away losses for Nigel Adkins side at the start of the season they have taken at least a point from three of their last four on the road.

The Saints have a few injury worries coming into this so could be vulnerable if Aston Villa can put their game face on.

The historical record between these two clubs is very even and this game should be no different, Southampton are on a run of draws and could extend that here.

Everton V Swansea

On a weekend of what on paper are very tight games to call this one is no different. These two are among the hardest teams to beat in the division.

Everton inflicted on Swansea their heaviest defeat of the season with a 3-0 win at the Liberty Stadium. Michael Laudrup’s side have been better defensively away from home and have managed more wins on the road than in Wales, and transferred that to the Capital One Cup with a win at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.

Everton lost their unbeaten home record to Chelsea the last time they played at Goodison Park but are having a great season in the main.

I expect this game to be hotly contested from the off and has the potential to be a fantastic game. Everton have more in attack than Swansea and should be able to break them down at some point, one goal could be enough to win this and I believe Everton will be the ones to get it. Swansea have not scored against Everton in three games since their promotion and Everton to win to nil at 7/4 is the value.

Fulham V Wigan

The Cottagers gained a somewhat surprise win over West Brom at the Hawthorns to put an end to a tough run. Wigan were, to quote Mick McCarthy from a few years back, “absolutely mullered” by Manchester United on their last league appearance.

Martin Jol’s side won this meeting in September and have a very good record against the Lattics who have not beaten the London side since 2006. Fulham have scored exactly twice in this fixture for the past four seasons.

This campaign the two sides between them have played in 11 games that finished 2-1 including their first meeting this term. I expect a similar result here again for two sides that are usually very bound by trends.

Fulham at Evens to win the game at 15/2 for a 2-1 correct score are the call.

Norwich V Newcastle

Both teams are on a run they would dearly love to end. Newcastle have lost nine of their last 11 league matches and are without a win away from home and Norwich have lost their last 4 since going 10 unbeaten.

The Canaries are five points ahead of the Magpies in the table and deservedly so. Alan Pardew could welcome Cabaye and Ben Arfa back into the side after injury and following the departure of star man Demba Ba they will be needed. Norwich striker Grant Holt could be fit to start following two games out with a hamstring injury.

Newcastle won their early season meeting 1-0 with Ba getting the all important goal but a lot has happened in both sides’ seasons since.

Liverpool, Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs are the only ones who took full points from Carrow Road since 2011 so that tells you the task Newcastle face.

This game will depend on who makes it back fit for both sides but at this point Norwich look the stronger. They can end their run of league defeats after their confidence boosting FA Cup win and are a good price at 5/4 to do so.

Reading V West Brom

If you are picking which game to watch on the red button this will be the lowest in your order of preference. The Royals have the odd island of good form in their ocean of harsh reality this season, one of those came around Christmas time but their work is cut out for them here.

It is no accident that West Brom are only three points away from the Europa League places. They were surprise losers against Fulham on New Year’s Day but would be even more surprise losers if they went down here.

The Baggies beat Reading 1-0 at The Hawthorns in September but historically have a rather poor record at The Madejski with only one win in 9 visits. With that in mind a bit of insurance for betting purposes may be wise and West Brom Draw No Bet at 8/11 with Hills is the verdict.

Stoke City V Chelsea

The Potters have a reputation of taking the scalps of the bigger sides at the Brittannia but Chelsea are not one of those. Since 2008 they have only taken two of a possible 27 points versus Chelsea who have taken the lion’s share of 23 in their meetings and Tony Pulis’s side managed the meagre 3 goals in all their meetings in those years.

One thing that will be hugely in favour of the home side is the absence of Petr Cech through injury, he has coped so well over the seasons with the shelling that is usually received when playing Stoke.

Rafa Benetiz has come under fire from fans and media once again following their defeat by Swansea at home in the League Cup and QPR in the league.

It is a mild surprise to see Chelsea odds on to win at Stoke who are unbeaten this season at home. It took a late Ashley Cole goal to gain victory in their meeting in September and a dour affair is almost assured.

Only once have Chelsea loose against Stoke and handed out a walloping but mostly the great Didier Drogba was the match winner. Now without a forward player of his status and suitability to the opposition they could struggle.

Under 2.5 goals at 7/10 and Stoke with a goal headstart at 17/20 with Stoke sponsors Bet365 both look worthy of a punt.

Sunderland V West Ham 

As I alluded to earlier in the piece we have games that are very hard to call and this may be the hardest on Saturday. In 66 meetings since 1923 Sunderland have one win more than West Ham in their encounters. It is the London side who hold the advantage in the league table though.

They drew a goal apiece 4 months ago and both drew in the FA Cup last weekend, West Hams was more substantial as theirs came against Man United. The return of a number of players from injury and suspension since their last league outing has boosted Sam Allardyce’s side.

Martin O’Neill has plenty of injury worries especially defensively and West Ham’s good set piece ability could expose that. It is a game that is too tough to call given that Sunderland have home advantage and no matter what the result it would be no surprise as anything could happen.

New resolution needed from QPR and Newcastle this year

Chelsea V Queens Park Rangers
·         3 words should some up this game, Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea.

·         The Blues are playing brilliantly in recent times and they are playing the leagues official worst team.
·         Against Lieverpool, QPR were beaten before all the fans could take their seats. A similar feeling that they experienced in this fixture last April.
·         QPR have done well against Chelsea at Loftus Road in recent times but have only gained 1 point at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League era.
·         No racism to worry about with John Terry out injured and Anton Ferdinand seemingly out of Harry’s favour so Ashley Cole should have handshakes all round. Petr Cech is out after going off injured a few days ago.
·         Expect QPR to try and keep things tight and drag this game down, so on that note is plausible that the first goal could be a set piece and Ivanovic to score anytime at 7/1 with William Hill and chief creator Juan Mata anytime assist at 13/8 with Boylesports both look good value bets.
·         Chelsea have too much quality and are in great form so they should win with a couple to spare.

Luis Suarez: 3 goals in 4 appearances V Sunderland

Liverpool V Sunderland
·        When these sides met in September it ended a goal apiece with strikes from both of the sides leading scorers Suarez and Fletcher respectively.
·         The last 2 Anfield meetings have ended in a draw also.
·         On recent form the teams, both managed by Northern Ireland natives are very evenly matched. Both won 3 and lost 2 of their past 5. Both have scored in each of their last 7 matches and the pair have 7 clean sheets each this season.
·         Stats show that they are evenly matched but the one thing that may swing it in favour of Liverpool is the injury to John O Shea and the good form of the Reds star players Gerrard and Suarez.

Newcastle V Everton

·         At Goodison Park in late September this was quite the game. A 2-2 draw that had it all.
·         Everton really put it up to the red hot Chelsea, leading and peppering their goal, hitting the posts on multiple occasions before losing out 2-1.
·         Marouane Fellaini returns after suspension to bolster their midfield weakened thru injury.
·         The Magpies need to improve at the back, they have conceded 11 in their last 2 games and the top 6 have put 22 past them in 7 matches this campaign.

Fellaini: The Belgian returns from suspension
(photo: Evertonfc.com)

·         David Moyes team suffered defeat for the first time since mid November 3 days ago but are in pretty good shape to avoid the same fate here, they have only drawn a blank in front of goal once in 20 league appearances.
·         Alan Pardew has plenty of selection worries, injuries and transfer speculation both contributing. They are there for the taking for Everton.

*All crests from Wikipedia