Favourites, Mullins and how Anglo can make you money - A recent guide to Irish Grade 1s

BY CONRAD CLANCY

THE Irish National Hunt season “proper” is now underway with the first all age Grade one of the season, the JN Wine Champion Chase now in the offing let us examine what the demographic of the 43 individual horses who were the winner of an Irish Grade 1 in the past five seasons.

The place you must nearly always start in a top class race is the favourite. Backing all favourites blind (backing both horses in event of joint favourites) would have left you a healthy profit margin of twenty times your investment for a level stake. This is mildly surprising considering that 17 of the 39 winning favourites went off at odds on and the biggest price of an obliging jolly was 100/30.

Table 1

Field Size	Num. of races	Winning Favourite	Level Stakes +/-
<5	7	4	+0.71
5-7	30	21	+10.70
8+	28	14	+8.59
Double figures	13	8	+9.44

You may say, 'big whoop these small field and often poorly contested races go to the best horse', but read on. Yes price has been a useful indicator of winners generally. Only five winners returned at a double figure price and except for the remarkably generous 14/1 about double Champion Hurdler Hardy Eustace in the four runner Morgiana Hurdle in 2008, all have come at the Punchestown Festival and to narrow it further - three have been in the Guinness Gold Cup (Planet of Sound at 14/1, and Follow The Plan and China Rock both at 20/1).

As mentioned odds on favourites have won 17 races, while there have only been three odds-on losers, two of these came in the Morgiana Hurdle and the other was Kauto Star. An 85 percent strike rate shows that odds on favourites are as formidable as they should be. Backing each and every one would have been a slow but sure way to success.

As is the case with all horse races, previous achievements are a good guideline to a horse’s chance. Of the 65 race winners 48 had already won a Grade One and only four had yet to notch a win at Grade two at least.

The quartet were Synchronised who had won a number of top staying handicaps already. Quel Esprit who won a substandard Irish Hennessy in February 2012, What A Friend, winning the Lexus after a runner up placing to the mighty Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup and finally Sizing Europe in the 2008 Irish Champion Hurdle when he was very much the up and coming horse after winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in impressive fashion.

Flat form is also a good guide to winners of the leading hurdle contests. There were 20 two mile hurdle races staged in the sample period and 18 winners of those had won a flat race previously. While flat form may be a good guide to the short distance hurdle winners, just a solitary staying chaser (Kempes, Irish Hennessy) had won on the level.

Irish Grade one winners are normally prolific winners. Those who took home the top hurdle races had won an average of seven National Hunt races previously while chase winners have averaged eight previous jumps wins.

Sublimity was the only horse beyond his first season outside of the novice grade to have won less than a handful of previous races, but he had been hampered by injury and not forgetting one of those three victories was the Champion Hurdle.

Statistics show that winning after coming in from the cold is rare, horses in form are very much the ones to be on. Of the 58 winners in the list that had completed the course on their most recent National Hunt run, 28 had won, only six were worse than third last time out. Almost all of those who finished down the field last time out had done so in competitive events at Cheltenham or Aintree.

One name will spring to mind immediately when top flight Irish races are mentioned is Willie Mullins. In the past five seasons the Carlow trainer has had contestants in 46 of the all age Irish Grade one races, saddling 16 winners, a strike rate of more than one in three.

The most interesting thing about Mullins’ record is that after the turn of the year he has a far better win ratio than in the early season. He has sent out 35 representatives in the 22 races in the first half of the season and returned four winners (11.4 percent). Compare this to the second half of the season; here he has sent out 48 runners in 24 races and won half of them (12).

Pointing the way: Willie Mullins was the man to follow and that trend looks likely to continue
photo: rte.ie

The question that is of most importance to punters, is it profitable to back him blind? The answer is no. If you backed each and every runner for €10 you would have a level stakes loss of €308.40. And even second half of season grade one winners would have left you €70 in the red.

However, the fact that he has multiple representatives in a large amount of these races would drain from the profit of the first string. No second string (predicated on longer price in market) Mullins representative has won an all age Irish Grade One in the sample period so if we discount these from consideration the picture changes drastically.

His first strings have a strike rate of almost 35 percent (16 from 46). And if you had made it your new years’ resolution to back all of Willie Mullins’ first string for the last five years you would now have a healthy profit margin.

Their record in the second half of the season is 50 percent and would have given you sizable profit, not bad considering that 10 of the 12 were priced 3/1 or shorter as the tapes went up.

Table 2: Willie Mullins Record

	Races Contested	Runners	Winners	~% Strike Rate	+/-
Overall	46	83	16	19	-30.84
Pre Turn of year	22	35	4	11	-23.77
Post Turn of year	24	48	12	25	-7.07
First String (Post turn of year)	46 (24)	[see left]	16 (12)	35 (50)	+6.16 (+28.93)

Paul Nicholls:  Has had 10 winners in Ireland's top races since 2007
(photo: betting.betfair.com)

Raiders from the UK are always given due respect when contesting races here and judging by their record, rightly so. The runners from across the Irish Sea have had at least one runner in 35 Irish Grade Ones in the past five seasons and have taken home the prize on 18 of those occasions.

Backing all UK runners who started as favourite would have left you a healthy profit margin with a dozen of them obliging.

Three mile chases are the most targeted races by UK challengers with them having 60 percent of their runners in them. They have been contestants in 19 races in this category and the prize has gone the Anglo way on 12 of those occasions.

Table 3: UK Runners Record

	Events Contested	Number Runners	Wins	~% Strike Rate	Level Stakes +/-
Total	35	76	18	24	-3.29
SP Fav	18	18	12	67	+8.21
Hurdle	9	19	2	11	-11.67
Chase	26	57	16	28	+8.38
3m+ Chase	19	45	12	27	+11.33
<3m Chase	7	12	4	33	-2.95

Next time you are looking at an Irish Grade One contest here is a summary of how to narrow the field:

·         Favourite
·         In Steeplchases -Trained in the UK AND favourite.
·         Won, placed on last completed start.
·         Won at Grade 2 level or better in past.
·         Prolific winners in career so far.
·         Willie Mullins’ first string, especially in the second half of the season.
·         A previous winner on the Flat for two mile Hurdle races.
·         Official Rating 142 or higher

Multi Irish G1 winner, Hurricane Fly. How many will he bag this term?
(photo: university times)

Cheltenham Day 1 - insert appropriate pun here

"Down the Hill they come"
photo: drawbias.com

TAKE A deep breath, to ready for both the roar and the long week of 27 races, many hours of study and analysis that lays ahead. Cheltenham the eyes of the world are upon you, the hopes and prayers of punters everywhere march with you.

So let’s get straight down to business

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

I find it rather staggering that there is so little Grade1 form on offer. Only Colour Squadron, Galileo’s Choice and Dylan Ross have close up finishes as runners up at the top level.

That being said they are all easily enough opposed as either the form has not worked out or the trainers do not do particularly well at the festival.

It is noteworthy that Davy Russell has opted for Trifolium, this one has been competing in intermediate grade on a few runs this year and easily took a soft looking Grade2 last time. If he is as solid on faster going we will see but could go well for the same combo that brought us Weapons Amnesty.

Darlan currently heads the market but on his best run (last time) he fell two out. That leaves us with too many questions but if he travels like that in this race he will surely be among the first few home.

Steps to Freedom absolutely ran away with an Aintree bumper last year with only the re-opposing Montbazon hanging onto his coat tails. The Jessica Harrington trained horse won two battling finishes on his most recent starts, if you can call them recent as he was last seen in November (assumingly on account of having raced on the flat during the Summer).

Prospect Wells was not far behind that day but if he is among the outsiders I do not see how Steps to Freedom is so much shorter in the market.

I think he will go well but will be found wanting at the end of the race.

TETLAMI gets the nod in the festival opener; before we even consider his form he represents a top combination of Henderson and Geraghty and is 14-1, which is big for them.

He won the same race at Kempton at Christmas as Menorah did en route to victory in 2010, he jumped very fast and smooth, travelled well and when he was asked for something at the end he willingly gave it. He comes here quite unexposed compared to others but the price is too good to ignore.

If you fancy chancing an outsider you could do worse than Distant Memories, a useful flat performer, he was going well until he made a horrendous mistake at the second last at Naas when behind Midnight Game and Dylan Ross but he could have gone very close otherwise.

ARKLE NOVICE’S CHASE

No matter what you think he beat you must say that Sprinter Sacre has been breathtaking in his chasing career to date. We could well be looking at an easy winner of the Novice Championship.

Cue Card (right); Can he fulfill his promise?
photo: sportinglife.co.uk

However he was behind Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme Novice where he faded late on. A year older and having had a breathing operation nothing has laid a glove on him since and Barry Geraghty who has well over half a century of Grade1 winners says he could be the best he has ridden.

Menorah has to prove his jumping can hold up but as a Supreme Novice winner also he must hold a claim.

Like Sprinter Sacre, the extra year in age appears to have benefitted CUE CARD greatly. He could only manage fourth when favourite behind Al Ferof last year.

He has always been touted as a top future chaser by connections and his form over fences cannot be knocked. The Tizzard’s six year old represents the best value alternative to Sprinter Sacre in a small field.

JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE

A race that is strong on stats, and although I do not like to adhere to them too strictly it helps to narrow this field of 19.

Quantitativeeasing heads the field after winning at Cheltenham in December over 2m5f. He has festival form also when second on this card in 2011 behind Divers. It would be a great achievement to win off 11st 12lbs but place money is probably most likely.

Hold On Julio has been all the rage for this contest since his Sandown win in early January but is available at a price of 13/2. Alan King and Robert Thornton have won this twice in the past decade and the lightly raced 9-y-o holds strong claims despite his sketchy jumping on occasion.

Our Mick has cannoned up the weights over the Winter and holds an each way shout, Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan are all probably too old according to statistics at least.

There is a former runner up of this contest in The Package. He has not ran in over 16 months but given his trainer that is not as major a concern as it could be. Baile Anrai is consistent, he has two wins and two falls in chases, he was still in contention in a very strong race when falling three fences from the finish and could be more than a lively outsider here.

Fruity O Rooney likewise, he was running a very good race before almost unseating at the last in the Sky Bet Chase and has only once been out of the first three over fences.

It is an absolutely wide open race and to make a selection I would chance PENTIFFIC. His rider gave him no mercy last time and he tired just before the last where he fell. He had not touched a twig before that and they did break the course record there over two furlongs further with Venetia Williams’ inmate cutting out the running.

The former Australlian trained animal is a tentative selection in a wide open race with The Package the other preferred option.

CHAMPION HURDLE

There will be no beating about the bush here- HURRICANE FLY will win barring, god forbid, injury. This year’s race is not a patch on last years and Willie Mullins’s superstar even looks value at 10/11.

No hot air with Hurricane
photo: guardian.co.uk

Zarkandar will have to improve to beyond his Triumph Hurdle win to challenge and has to overcome the poor record of five year olds. Binocular won a fairly poor renewal in 2010 and cannot be trusted and I think he could be a place lay if you like that type of bet.

Rock on Ruby and Oscars Well are closely matched on last year’s Neptune Hurdle form and they could fill the minor spots.

THE UNDERCARD

The Cross County is unravelable, the usual safe option of going with Enda Bolger does not look as easy this year with Garde Champetre beaten on all races this year (December win fell into his lap as he was well down the field when the leading group took the wrong course).

A NEW STORY will be the most senior contender at this year’s festival and given his excellent record over this course and is a good bet to make the first four yet again.

The Mares hurdle will probably see Quevega 10 lengths clear on the bridle yet again but I see little reason to get involved financially in it.

A rapid day one will have even the most enthusiastic of punter tired by the time the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase rolls around.

A field of 20 is not too easy to narrow, there was only 14 lengths between places first and tenth last season and I envisage a similar scenario this time around. TRIOLO D’ALENE, Bless The Wings and Hunt Ball are vying for favouritism.

The last mentioned has done nothing but improve all season he started off on a rating of 69 and seven races and six wins later he is up to 142.

Barry Geraghty has been bullish about the chance of Triolo D’Alene and he could be well ahead of this grade and is still improving, only five years old and if he is not in the shake-up it would be a surprise.

Bless The Wings has plenty going for him but may need more to win, course form is a plus however. 

Going Wrong is not something that you would do if you followed Davy Russell and Ferdy Murphy when they combine at Prestbury Park. The 9-y-o has been brought about quietly much like last year’s winner Divers and must be respected.

Triolo D'Alene has promise
photo: Getty images

Finally Quincy Des Pictons beat a few respectable opponents by a good distance at Chepstow over Christmas. He has been transformed by the move to new trainer Alan Jones and if he can show his form on a faster surface at 20-1 he could be worth a small saver.

BEST BETS: TRIOLO D’ALENE (EW),  and it’s obvious but Im going to do the cardinal sin of tipping – giving an odds on shot - and include HURRICANE FLY.