Monday, 26 March 2012

Market Rasen Preview Tuesday


Richard Johnson could be smiling tomorrow
with a good book of rides
photo: racing post

THE OPENER at 2:20 has a field of seven where a case can be made for all, conversely it is easy enough to oppose them all.
Enroller was a group horse on the flat and has run respectable in his last two hurdle runs. He is Noel Fehily’s only ride on the day, he has to give weight all round and may have to settle for minor money.
Langley’s best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground but he has only had 4 runs for Tim Vaughan and his record is F112. He has apparently improved for the addition of a tongue strap and with Richard Johnson back on board he is a player.
Osgood is a rare Mick Channon jumps representative. He was second to the Pipe’s “good thing”, Katchmore lost time. He appears here on the same mark. His best NH form is on a sound surface and he should be in the shakeup in an all round competitive affair.
An incredible tight market for the 2:50 with Union Island, having his first run over hurdles for Brian Ellison, the outsider of the quintet. He has been disappointing since returning from a break and is best watched.
The favourite at time of writing is Royal Entourage. He is up the weights after racking up a hat trick and is a leading contender again.
Hoback Junction was highly tried when with Lucy Wadham and ran ok last time to finish third. He appeared to lack fitness when fading late on but with that run under his belt he should be a major contender.
Presenting Ace and D’Gigi will need to show more than they have already to win but are by no means out of the reckoning.
Small but competitive fields are the order of the day. Not one for the each way punter.
The 3:20 is another tough contest to unravel. O Crotaigh has three wins and a nose margin second place at the venue and despite being six pounds higher than his last victory further progress is not ruled out from him back at this track.
His front running tactics should stand him in good stead in a small field. It is not hard to see why Midnight Sail is favourite. He is back in form following a layoff and went close on his most recent run behind a rival completing a four timer.
The step up in distance should also suit and his hurdle rating suggests that he is well in here.
A five horse class 5 chase where only one horse has a win over fences in the UK sounds like it should be straightforward at 3:50. But that horse, KERCABELLEC, is 14 years old, seven pounds out if the handicap and has had more horses finish in front of him than behind him this season.
No other horse jumps from the page with only slight appeal from the favourite Sacre Toi.
Kercabellec returned to the winners enclosure twice this time last year to end a four year drought. His mark is at the same lowly level here. He has gained five of his seven wins in March, the trainer has his horses in excellent form and at 20-1 he is worth a punt in an absolutely terrible looking race.
With absolutely nothing doing in the 4:20 and without some information not on the form book the only option I can see if getting financially involved is Charles. Whether or not he comes back fit after a Winter break is a question but if he does he should be better than the greater majority of these.

Dawn Commander (r): during his days in Ireland
photo: irishracing

If you are at Market Rasen and asking yourself will this day ever end, well there is just two more races and at last we see a couple of horses that can run faster than the ambulance.
Dawn Commander contested the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but was unable to make a serious impact into proceedings. He previously was just behind weekend winner Golden Call when conceding weight at Bangor in February.
On that form he will be very tough to beat. Finnegan Paddy has been consistent against some handy rivals all Winter but he is yet to get his head in front so is opposed.
Steve Gollings does well at the Licolnshire venue Lincolnshire  , he saddles All That Remains. The horse has not run over 3 miles since winning a Point-to-Point in Ireland. It does appear as if the step up should suit however as he was outpaced recently over 2m1f at Doncaster.
He looks the most potent threat to Dawn Commander.Lincolnshi
Jonny Rye was just denied by last year’s Champion Bumber second Destroyer Deployed as he was third at Southwell earlier this month, a repeat of that should see him be hard to pass again.
The Bumper at 5:20 concludes the action. House Party was well beaten last time at Newbury following a very promising debut behind Call Back who has done ok since. Getting a four year old allowance he should go close to winning.
Scarlet Fire who’s penalty is negated by the riders claim must hold a strong chance again. And of the debutants Scarlet Fire looks the pick for a combination that had a winner in the last few weeks.

BEST BETS: DAWN COMMANDER, KERCABELLEC

Tuesday, 13 March 2012

From Alfie Spinner to Virginia Ash, its competitive as ever!

NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE
This race is among the best at the festival with many future top class horses having contested it. Examples from the last decade are Hardy Eustace (1st), Denman (2nd), Peddlers Cross (1st) and Rock On Ruby (2nd).
The market suggests that Simonsig has the best chance, he has a big reputation and that is probably why he is so clear in the betting but his form so far has not proven anything.

MONKSLAND was an easy winner on soft/heavy ground at Navan in January and the runner up has since been a close second to Boston Bob and won another race also. Noel Meade and Paul Carberry won this with Nicanor in 2006 and Monskland could repeat the trick.
Ireland’s other main hopes are Bennefficient and Sous Le Cieux. They were first and second in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m2f but the step up should not be a problem for either.
Batonnier improved out of all recognition to win at the course in January but is a tad short in the betting on what he has achieved. Cotton Mill comes here unbeaten, he was a wide margin winner of his first two races and just got the better of last Saturday’s winner Ambion Wood in very testing conditions at Warwick earlier in the year.
As long as he has recovered from them exploits there is no reason he cannot go well at 16-1. There are 18 entered but it really only concerns a handful.

Grand Crus: Can he break the World Hurdle runner-up hoodoo
photo: thisiscornwall.co.uk
RSA CHASE
The connections of GRAND CRUS have opted for the novice route and leaving a stab at the Gold Cup for another year.
He was an impressive winner at Kempton on Boxing Day and the third that day Bobs Worth takes him on again.
Grand Crus was second to the all conquering Big Buck’s in last year’s World Hurdle but the last two runners up in that, Punchestowns and Time for Rupert, were both beaten favourites in this contest. Although trends for this do not particularly favour David Pipe’s grey the opposition have too much to prove to take him on at the prices.
Bobs Worth is three from three at Cheltenham but was beaten again last time at Ascot, maybe a return to a left handed track will suit, and on trends he is the most likely winner.
First Lieutenant has not been at his best all year but reportedly had a back problem in the early season. He beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby a head in last year’s Neptune Hurdle and is a big threat on that form.
Paul Nicholls’ string usually does well in this contest and Join Together deserves a mention. His form has worked out quite well, he has won twice over fences at the track and is the only course and distance winner to line up. He has been kept fresh for this and is the choice of Ruby Walsh.
Can he defend his crown?
Sizing Europe beats Big Zeb in 2011
photo: betting.betfair.co.uk
Grand Crus is the one they all have to beat but is certainly not bulletproof.


QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
A field of eight goes to post that includes the winners from the past two years, SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb.
Moscow Flyer was the only horse older than nine to win it since 1998 but I do not think Sizing Europe has been reading much statistics. If anything he has looked even better this year when winning impressively on his last two starts.
There does not appear to be any real threat, Finian’s Rainbow was headed late on in the Victor Chandler Chase in January and was second in last year’s Arkle over this circuit.
Gauvain, Kauto Stone and Wishfull Thinking all probably prefer a bit further. Realt Dubh runs his first race of the season and there is no reason to see why Big Zeb can defeat his old rival.
Even money should not be a deterrent. Im So Lucky would be just that if he can make the frame given his horrific Cheltenham record, although he ran his best race in some time at Newbury behind Sprinter Sacre and could be one to look out for before the season is out.

CORAL CUP
Always one of the hottest races of the whole festival this year is every bit as difficult to unravel, David Pipe looks to hold a massive chance of gaining victory. He is represented by Star of Angels (4th in this in 2009 before injury, winner last time), Consigliere (reverts from fences and better on a softer surface), POOLE MASTER (good novice hurdle form, well in at the weights, still unexposed) and recent French import Balgarry (most recent form is very strong but stepping up in trip).

Poole Master (right): well in on handicap rating
photo: Sportinglife.com
Like the Champion Chase the last two winners line up again –Spirit River and Carlito Brigante, the former needs to bounce back after losing his way over fences but Carlito Brigante’s only ever handicap run was in this last year and has ran well at a higher level in his career so may have a strong chance of repeating the trick carring 12lbs more.

Third Intention, Act Of Kalanisi , Get Me Out Of Here, and Final Approach all have a string claim. As you can see the race has plenty of strength and depth but it could pay to side with David Pipe with Poole Master and Star Of Angels both good each way prices.
Poole Master's jockey Chris Honour only needs one more win to ride out his claim. A goal after which he said he would retire, and what a story it would be if he could visit the winners enclosure at the Cheltenham festival on his last ride.

THE UNDERCARD
The Fred Winter is a bit of a lottery every year as the runners are relatively inexperienced and do not have a strong level of form. Its more about cleaning up the Triumph Hurdle than anything else.
But if you must buy a ticket for this lottery you could do worse than Royal Bonsai at 20-1. The John Quinn trained animal beat the consistent and subsequent winner Eagle Rock. He had a run on the All Weather in February so as not to increase his handicap mark. I have almost talked myself around now and he may well be worth an investment after all.

We could talk about ifs and buts about the Champion Bumper all evening, if I said to steer clear of the Fred Winter then definitely avoid this unless you are privy to reliable information. Yes many good horses do contest it but we do not know them yet. Royal Guardsman was a comprehensive winner of a strong Ascot bumber.
The Tizzards won this with Cue Card in 2010 and their charge can give a good account here.
The day kicks off with the four mile Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase and I see no reason to seek a big price here.



Allee Garde was a close third in a Grade1 at Leopardstown and he is taken to win for the father and son pairing of Willie and Patrick Mullins. Teaforthree and Harry The Viking look likely to play a leading part in the closing stages also.
So let’s hope it’s not the bloodbath some of us saw on day one. Have fun and God Speed!

BEST BETS: MONKSLAND, POOLE MASTER (EW) & STAR OF ANGELS (EW)

Monday, 12 March 2012

Cheltenham Day 1 - insert appropriate pun here

"Down the Hill they come"
photo: drawbias.com

TAKE A deep breath, to ready for both the roar and the long week of 27 races, many hours of study and analysis that lays ahead. Cheltenham the eyes of the world are upon you, the hopes and prayers of punters everywhere march with you.

So let’s get straight down to business

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
I find it rather staggering that there is so little Grade1 form on offer. Only Colour Squadron, Galileo’s Choice and Dylan Ross have close up finishes as runners up at the top level.
That being said they are all easily enough opposed as either the form has not worked out or the trainers do not do particularly well at the festival.

It is noteworthy that Davy Russell has opted for Trifolium, this one has been competing in intermediate grade on a few runs this year and easily took a soft looking Grade2 last time. If he is as solid on faster going we will see but could go well for the same combo that brought us Weapons Amnesty.

Darlan currently heads the market but on his best run (last time) he fell two out. That leaves us with too many questions but if he travels like that in this race he will surely be among the first few home.

Steps to Freedom absolutely ran away with an Aintree bumper last year with only the re-opposing Montbazon hanging onto his coat tails. The Jessica Harrington trained horse won two battling finishes on his most recent starts, if you can call them recent as he was last seen in November (assumingly on account of having raced on the flat during the Summer).
Prospect Wells was not far behind that day but if he is among the outsiders I do not see how Steps to Freedom is so much shorter in the market.
I think he will go well but will be found wanting at the end of the race.

TETLAMI gets the nod in the festival opener; before we even consider his form he represents a top combination of Henderson and Geraghty and is 14-1, which is big for them.
He won the same race at Kempton at Christmas as Menorah did en route to victory in 2010, he jumped very fast and smooth, travelled well and when he was asked for something at the end he willingly gave it. He comes here quite unexposed compared to others but the price is too good to ignore.

If you fancy chancing an outsider you could do worse than Distant Memories, a useful flat performer, he was going well until he made a horrendous mistake at the second last at Naas when behind Midnight Game and Dylan Ross but he could have gone very close otherwise.

ARKLE NOVICE’S CHASE
No matter what you think he beat you must say that Sprinter Sacre has been breathtaking in his chasing career to date. We could well be looking at an easy winner of the Novice Championship.
Cue Card (right); Can he fulfill his promise?
photo: sportinglife.co.uk

However he was behind Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme Novice where he faded late on. A year older and having had a breathing operation nothing has laid a glove on him since and Barry Geraghty who has well over half a century of Grade1 winners says he could be the best he has ridden.

Menorah has to prove his jumping can hold up but as a Supreme Novice winner also he must hold a claim.
Like Sprinter Sacre, the extra year in age appears to have benefitted CUE CARD greatly. He could only manage fourth when favourite behind Al Ferof last year.
He has always been touted as a top future chaser by connections and his form over fences cannot be knocked. The Tizzard’s six year old represents the best value alternative to Sprinter Sacre in a small field.

JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE
A race that is strong on stats, and although I do not like to adhere to them too strictly it helps to narrow this field of 19.
Quantitativeeasing heads the field after winning at Cheltenham in December over 2m5f. He has festival form also when second on this card in 2011 behind Divers. It would be a great achievement to win off 11st 12lbs but place money is probably most likely.
Hold On Julio has been all the rage for this contest since his Sandown win in early January but is available at a price of 13/2. Alan King and Robert Thornton have won this twice in the past decade and the lightly raced 9-y-o holds strong claims despite his sketchy jumping on occasion.
Our Mick has cannoned up the weights over the Winter and holds an each way shout, Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan are all probably too old according to statistics at least.
There is a former runner up of this contest in The Package. He has not ran in over 16 months but given his trainer that is not as major a concern as it could be. Baile Anrai is consistent, he has two wins and two falls in chases, he was still in contention in a very strong race when falling three fences from the finish and could be more than a lively outsider here.
Fruity O Rooney likewise, he was running a very good race before almost unseating at the last in the Sky Bet Chase and has only once been out of the first three over fences.
It is an absolutely wide open race and to make a selection I would chance PENTIFFIC. His rider gave him no mercy last time and he tired just before the last where he fell. He had not touched a twig before that and they did break the course record there over two furlongs further with Venetia Williams’ inmate cutting out the running.
The former Australlian trained animal is a tentative selection in a wide open race with The Package the other preferred option.

CHAMPION HURDLE
There will be no beating about the bush here- HURRICANE FLY will win barring, god forbid, injury. This year’s race is not a patch on last years and Willie Mullins’s superstar even looks value at 10/11.
No hot air with Hurricane
photo: guardian.co.uk
Zarkandar will have to improve to beyond his Triumph Hurdle win to challenge and has to overcome the poor record of five year olds. Binocular won a fairly poor renewal in 2010 and cannot be trusted and I think he could be a place lay if you like that type of bet.
Rock on Ruby and Oscars Well are closely matched on last year’s Neptune Hurdle form and they could fill the minor spots.

THE UNDERCARD
The Cross County is unravelable, the usual safe option of going with Enda Bolger does not look as easy this year with Garde Champetre beaten on all races this year (December win fell into his lap as he was well down the field when the leading group took the wrong course).

A NEW STORY will be the most senior contender at this year’s festival and given his excellent record over this course and is a good bet to make the first four yet again.
The Mares hurdle will probably see Quevega 10 lengths clear on the bridle yet again but I see little reason to get involved financially in it.
A rapid day one will have even the most enthusiastic of punter tired by the time the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase rolls around.

A field of 20 is not too easy to narrow, there was only 14 lengths between places first and tenth last season and I envisage a similar scenario this time around. TRIOLO D’ALENE, Bless The Wings and Hunt Ball are vying for favouritism.
The last mentioned has done nothing but improve all season he started off on a rating of 69 and seven races and six wins later he is up to 142.

Barry Geraghty has been bullish about the chance of Triolo D’Alene and he could be well ahead of this grade and is still improving, only five years old and if he is not in the shake-up it would be a surprise.
Bless The Wings has plenty going for him but may need more to win, course form is a plus however. 

Going Wrong is not something that you would do if you followed Davy Russell and Ferdy Murphy when they combine at Prestbury Park. The 9-y-o has been brought about quietly much like last year’s winner Divers and must be respected.

Triolo D'Alene has promise
photo: Getty images
Finally Quincy Des Pictons beat a few respectable opponents by a good distance at Chepstow over Christmas. He has been transformed by the move to new trainer Alan Jones and if he can show his form on a faster surface at 20-1 he could be worth a small saver.




BEST BETS: TRIOLO D’ALENE (EW),  and it’s obvious but Im going to do the cardinal sin of tipping – giving an odds on shot - and include HURRICANE FLY.

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Doncaster Preview

Town Moor: Good midweek card


IT IS good to see a day of good ground racing at Doncaster as the build up to the festival sees many putting in their final run within the next week before Cheltenham.
All seven races on Town Moor have something to get at least mildly excited about.

A Juvenile Hurdle opens proceedings at 1:55. Ardlui is
the only winner lining up. The form of his two hurdle runs is very strong with two good quality subsequent winners ahead of him when third on debut.
From his win there has been good performances from the second placed Tango De Juilley as well as a handicap win from the third placed horse.

Black Pond will likely improve for his debut run but the main challenge to Alan King’s charge will probably come from Eagle Rock he has bumped into some decent animals in his three hurdle races.
He had weekend Sandown winner Bourne 18 lengths behind on his last run and his debut conqueror Countrywide Flame has been placed twice at the highest level since. In between he was placed in a C&D Grade 2.
It’s impossible to recommend anything but the obvious here. Alan King’s stable is in great form and Ardlui may leave Eagle Rock to be the bridesmaid yet again.

The 32red Casino Beginners´ Chase looks to concern just a couple for win purposes but there are currently eight so there is each way possibilities.
As to what ground suits Aikman best is a question, he appears to go on anything but before last time I had been of the opinion that he prefers softer going. He flopped badly last time but this is a good opportunity to bounce back.

Aikman can bounce back
(
Photo: turfpix.com)
He had a good season as a novice hurdler but has not yet shown that over the larger obstacles, arguably his best performance over fences this term was over an inadequate two miles at Carlisle on his chasing debut.
He can be forgiven the run last time and is the one to beat. Master Fiddle was way underpriced last time when well beaten and I do not see his situation getting any better this time. He was placed on this card last year and a place is likely the best he will muster again.

Quentin Collonges has only made it to the track twice in the last two seasons but was a good hurdler in 09/10. Henry Daly does well at Doncaster and this son of Dom Alco is feared most.
The Cockney Mackem has made the frame in all completed starts but with the stable not at the peak of its powers minors is probably the best he can hope for.

The 3:00 Mirror Punters Club E B F "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle has a competitive field as Paul Nicholls told us to expect in novice hurdles following the number of abandoned meetings a few weeks ago.

Oscar Nominee, despite finishing last of three on his most recent run was less than three lengths behind Supreme hopeful Cinders and Ashes on heavy ground. He was a 27 length winner previously and the return to better ground is the one to beat for a top team.

The form of The Weatherman’s runs has not worked out and more is needed here under a penalty. Presenting Ace came home at a respectful distance behind some useful rivals on his previous runs and can make the frame here.
It is worth keeping an eye on the hurdling debutants and Wordy’s Boy could be a good each way option following his return to action in January.

The past few renewals of the 3:30 32red Veterans´ Handicap Chase have been interesting and this one is no different. The current favourite is Mark The Book but he is plenty short enough for a horse who has had all his wins on heavy going.
Wogan’s only defeat at the course came in this race last year. He has yet to complete for new trainer Tom Symonds but is now 10 pounds below his last winning mark. This looks a good opportunity for Faasel but he appears to peak in the top races but note any market support here.

Auroras Encore missed last season but if he comes on for his reappearance holds strong claims at a big price despite conceding weight. It looks like it will not be long before Atouchbetweenacara can gain a victory as plummeting mark and a return to better ground ever enhances his chance. However the 11 year old only has two wins to his name.
David Pipe’s Faasel represents a decent ‘bet to nothing’ in a red hot contest.

Market support should be noted for Faasel
(Picture: pixmule.com)

We have a handicap hurdle at 4:05 where David Pipe’s Decoy heads the field. He was well beaten last time in the Lanzarotte but a better run is expected back in class 3 company. Corkage has been in great form over the Winter and has two wins and a place from three runs here, but it is possible that the handicapper has him for the moment.

Distime was a beaten favourite on his handicap debut but better can be expected this time but at 6-1 he is short enough. Bob ‘N’ You  has some useful form but may need this after 16 months off, however the stable can prepare them fresh.
Dawn Commander was staying on the last twice and as a PTP winner the step up to 3 miles will suit. The first time visor saw Storm Survivor bolt in at Plumpton but is up 14 pounds for that.
Patsy Finnegan and Ely Brown are others to consider at bigger prices.

As is always the case with Hunter’s chases it is best to focus on the top of the market at 4:40. Lorikarad is the most obvious choice.

‘Stick to what you know’ is the call in the Bumper and Kaysersberg has the best form as well as being a C&D winner and is easy to side with. This Is Me was well beaten on his debut here but may be worth another chance after repeating the journey from Newmarket.





BEST BETS – AIKMAN, FAASEL


Monday, 20 February 2012

Taunton Preview

TAUNTON stages a seven race card on Tuesday with six of the seven races sponsored by Bathwick Tyres. The recent freeze means that, all respect to Taunton, the card is higher quality than may have been expected.
Triumph hopeful Urbain De Sivola
(Photo: hoguenet.com)

It gets underway at 2:00 with a novice hurdle. Urbain De Sivola looks the one to beat. He slammed Ranjaan last time and he has won twice since (third and fourth also are subsequent winners) so that suggests he will be hard to beat here.
Dualla Lord is dropping down in distance for the first time after failing to live up to expectations but with Paul Nicholls’ stable under a bit of a cloud (only 1 weekend winner) he is easily passed over.
Ifyouletmefinish may give Nick Williams’ charge most to do. He was not disgraced behind either Pearl Swan or Grumeti over course and distance on his last two runs. Those coming from the point-to-point scene could play a part as could Giordano Bruno but the Phillip Hobbs is without a winner in February.
A Class5 Handicap Hurdle at 2:30 sees Changing Lanes, who landed one of the biggest gambles of the season when successful last week at Southwell, appear under a penalty. That seven pound is negated by useful amateur Mr J F Mathias who has ridden 10 winners for David Rees in the last three seasons.
He is still well below a previous winning mark and will be expected to win. Hobbs Dream won well over C&D last time but has since been hit with an 11 pound rise in the weights. Gentleman Jimmy was behind him that day but the swing in the weights should see them finish closer this time.
Eight time winner Cannon Fire and the relatively unexposed and first time blinkered Cosway Spirit are others to consider.
The poor but competitive Handicap Chase is difficult to sort out at 3:05. The Colin Tizzard yard had a brilliant weekend and Wosayu ran ok on his penultimate start but was last of three on heavy ground last time. With first time blinkers and back on better ground he could make the frame.
Kinkeel has been tilting at windmills on some of his starts this season, jumping around to pick up the scraps of prize money in the top events. He was beaten four times in this company in January but as always with the Tony Carroll yard look out for the market movement.
Alldunnandusted is still a maiden over the larger obstacles but with three hurdle wins should be involved in a race as lowly as this. Piran has shown nothing since moving house but has place claims on old form.
The 3:40 is a far more interesting contest. Sire De Grugy was fourth in the Betfair Hurdle on Friday and if he turns out again is very much the one to be on.
The Phillip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls stables did not fire to their usual high standard on the weekend but it would be foolish to leave Dare Me and Edgardo Sol out of calculations. The latter has been a model of consistency in big handicaps all season and with Harry Derham claiming seven could be dangerous.
Dare Me: chance after decent return run
(Photo blogs.bettor.com)
Dare Me is high quality and after a satisfactory reappearance it would be no great shock to see him end the stables mini drought. Alan King’s stable has no such form worries and Devil To Pay is a definite each way contender off a low weight.
Dee Ee Williams has been off since last March and off 147 this is too hot on reappearance. Higgy’s Rigazzo probably is not as good as many of these but Henderson’s representatives always deserve respect.
The verdict is if Sire De Grugy turns up he is the most solid option with Dare Me next best.
As I mentioned earlier Bathwick Tyres sponsor the card but will head man Wayne Clifford be winning back some of his prize money at 4:15?
Bathwick Junior is his representative; she showed some in her earlier races but after three tailed off efforts in novice hurdles moves into handicap company in first time cheekpieces.
One who has improved for the move to handicap company is Clever Dick. He had excuses last time but with a tongue tie on and Paddy Brennan an interesting booking, David Pipe’s inmate looks the one to beat.
There is no need to look beyond a couple in the Pontispool Equine Sports Centre Hunters´ Chase at 4:45. Templar has far and away better form than any of these and indeed is 17 pounds superior rated to his nearest rivals but concedes nowhere near that weight. He should take this with the minimum of fuss.
Divine Intavention beat the laboured Bob Hall last May and could be the one to chase him home if at his best.
The Bumper at 5:20 concludes the card but with little information on the horses I am choosing to avoid it.

BEST BET- URBAIN DE SIVOLA + CLEVER DICK Double

Monday, 30 January 2012

TAUNTON PREVIEW TUESDAY

THERE IS a respectable card on offer at Taunton on Tuesday. There are seven races for us to get through.
I don’t think many of you who will be going will risk a speeding ticket to make the first at 1:40 –the Alpha Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle.

The younger animals in it are well exposed and perhaps the most interesting contender is Venetia Williams’s Sendinpost. Once she got into the straight she flew home to only be beaten under 10 lengths after looking like a distant third was on the cards. The step up to three miles plus will suit and the trainer has been in great form all month.
That’s Some Milan looked like the winner on his handicap debut after the return from his layoff  having traded at 4/6 in running. That was his first run for Ian Willliams and is expected to be fitter for that and looks a strong contender here.
The others have plenty to prove but the market may be a good help in solving this one.

The 2:10 Bravo Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Novices´ Hurdle on past evidence looks to lie between useful flat performers Alwaary and Dildar. The former now with Rebecca Curtis contesting pattern company nine times when with John Gosden and won in listed company at three.
Will you be risking Sanctuaire? (picture:Getty Images)
Dildar was fouth behind Pour Moi in a quick time affair at Saint Cloud in May, a race that contained French Derby second Bubble Chic and Group2 winner Vadamar. Paul Nicholls’s inmate will be the likely favourite considering he is getting weight all round.
The others are not without a chance and Constant Contact, Sew On Target and Tymford could all play a part.

For just five runners the Charlie Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Novices´ Chase at 2:40 is a good looking race. Sanctuaire returns to the venue where he burst onto the scene with a comfortable defeat of the then unknown Grand Crus. He now tackles the larger obstacles after two disappointing runs over hurdles.
The fact the Ruby Walsh takes the ride gives confidence but it is difficult to invest in him given his enigmatic nature. Easter Meteor got off the mark last time with a comfortable win to live up to the expectation placed on him by his useful relatives. Though, he probably will not be able to dictate up front this time around.
Shammick Boy took a heavy fall last time and on last season’s hurdle form he would be right in the shake up here. The trainer did not start the year with the customary excellent run of form and that is a negative.
Since injury Midnight Sail seems to have lost his form that saw his finish sixth in an Albert Bartlett and is best watched here.

The 2m1f Delta Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Handicap Hurdle at 3:10 has two extremely interesting handicap debutants, Ted Spread and Ifyouletmefinish, there was not much between the pair behind Grumeti over course and distance in December.
Jeremy Scott’s representative was since a four length second to Pearl Swan (conceding 11lbs) and may reverse form with the former St Ledger hope.
Of the slightly more experienced brigade, Double Handful has proved just that since moving to Lawney Hill and with two easy victories and a 19 pound rise he still has plenty to offer.
Double Handful has moved from Venetia Williams but she now has Monetary Fund formerly with Nicky Henderson. With the exception of last year’s Cheltenham run the six year old has never been far away at the business end, that said a mark of 130 on seasonal reappearance is probably beyond him.
The value of the race may lie with Pantxoa. The King-Hutchinson pairing has been in red hot form with a four wins and two places from their last seven runners. Pantxoa did not go well up in trip last time but he was highly regarded by Alan King before the novice season did not quite go to plan. If he puts in his usual solid run he looks good for a place here.
Pascha Bere is another who may be worth considering with the cheekpieces back on (last win came with them on).

Again a case can be made for a great deal of runners in the 3:40 Command And Logistics Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Handicap Hurdle. Val Mondo is currently at the head of the market on account of his running on fourth behind the handy Poole Master at Lingfield and the current vein of form of the stable.
Is It Me has two ways of going and despite his colossal price probably isn’t the worst 50-1 shot you will see. Woodlark Island is on a dangerous mark but may be one for the drier ground in a few weeks time.
Arctic Watch clearly doesn’t take a lot of racing but holds frame claims and despite still being a maiden one that looks certain to play a part at the finish is Anay Turge who was second to subsequent winners the last twice.
Venetia Williams;
multiple chances
(picture: racing post)

The 4:10 Go Commando Handicap Chase has attracted a few whom are dropping in grade. By the time this rolls around Venetia Williams may have already had a good day but Renard looks her best hope tomorrow.
Fifth and fourth on his last two starts when fading late, the drop in trip will suit. Another who will appreciate the shorter distance is Nomecheki, he completely dropped the anchor last time at the third last. Before that he was fourth in the 32 Red Chase at Sandown and a reproduction of that would see him make the places at least.
Frankie Figg appears at his best over the national fences and it is hard to have Star Galaxy off a career high rating aged 12 and a single figure price despite his January brace of victories.
Renard looks the most solid option here.
There are a few stables that do well with their newcomers in the represented in the 4:40 Dbs/Ebf Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race. The market and paddock watch is probably the best hope of unravelling this. I don’t have the answer so good luck.



BEST BETS – RENARD, PANTXOA (EW)