Now the time for Out to get Deal Done

We roll onto day three already in what seems like a blink. Pintura couldn’t get the job done yesterday when headed in the last 50 yards and having traded at 1/25 in running.

The jumps action takes centre stage for the next two days and the first of the showcase races is the www.thetote.com Galway Plate Handicap Chase over the 2m6f trip.

A field of 22 are declared and the weights are headed by Follow The Plan. He is a difficult horse to get a handle on, beaten at Gowran Park by 27 lengths before going on to win the Betfred Bowl at Aintree in convincing fashion.

Out Now (27) finishing 2nd in the Irish Grand National
(photo: Meath Chronicle)

He is a three time winner at the highest level over fences and has had many the fellow Grade1 winners in his trail. Even though he is a high class horse in the spring and preferably on good ground he has never won a handicap of any description from seven attempts.

It would be ludicrous to write him off and there would be worse bets at 20/1 but he will do well to concede almost a stone all round and is passed over.

Last year’s runner up Wise Old Owl has not been seen since and that has to be a negative in a race of this nature. He gets the assistance of Tony McCoy whose last winner at Galway was in this very race in 2010.

The horse is a model of consistency and his only run outside of the first two home came on his racecourse debut. He has avoided soft ground in his career so far so whether or not he will handle it is a question mark.

Willie Mullins gained his first victory in the race last year with Blazing Tempo and this time around Blackstairmountain, a Grade1 winning novice at Leopardstown at Christmas and a good record on soft or heavy going as is anticipated in this race he is a worthy favourite and looks sure to be in the frame.

The only doubt is whether he stays 2m6f. He has finished second on two occasions at 2m4f, despite them being against very good rivals he did shut down completely in the final 100 yards on both of them when apparently having the race won. I imagine he will be ridden patiently and his is a solid one for each way insurance.

One who has been well support since Monday is Out Now, he was available at 16/1 just last Saturday and now is half that price. He was second in the Irish Grand National when not getting home over near a mile further than this.

Barry Geraghty will be wasting to make the 10 stone two pound weight and that must be taken as a sign of confidence. He is versatile regarding ground, distance and racing position so he looks a solid prospect and getting weight from all his main rivals he could be the one to give Edward O’Grady victory here.

The trainer also has one time Champion Hurdle second Osana who ran well to come second at Kilbeggan 12 days ago. He has much less weight on his back this time and with David Casey who seems to pop up on big handicap winners with a degree of regularity he must be respected.However, no horse older than 10 has won the Plate in the past decade. 

JP Mc Manus shoots six bullets at the €120,400 first prize. Other than Wise Old Owl and Osana he has Bob Lingo, Alpine Eagle, Shot From The Hip and last and by no means least Harolds Cross.

JP McManus: Mob Handed in Plate

With JP McManus horses you never quite know which one will have his day but there can only be one winner. If the last reserve Harold’s Cross gets in he is a very interesting contender. Rewind 12 months and he would have come here a strongly fancied contender after winning three in a row by wide margins and he is just the kind of sleeper that so often wins these for JP.

Fellow leading Irish owner and business man Michael O’Leary has the ‘meagre’ three entries in comparison. Carlito Brigante ran horribly last time and I think he lacks the experience over fences. Campbonnais is a consistent performer in contests of a similar nature and the ground will pose no problems under a useful jockey claiming five pounds but he may lack the class to win.

His Excellency is the last of his trio and despite his tail swishing antics he is by no means the 50/1 shot he is priced as. However being only a four year old it would be a sensational performance to win this for a horse of his age.

Noel Meade has a poor record in this race but his representative Cross Appeal has the form to win this. Before the turn of 2012 he won the big handicap at Leopardstown, the Paddy Power Chase. His only run since was pulled up in the Irish Grand National.

Like many in the line up he cannot be ruled out completely but his trainer having not won a Galway steeplechase in the last five years is a major negative. Meade has three runners but while all are useful there are better options.

Oliver McKeirnan has Whodoyouthink as well as Follow The Plan. He could hardly have been more impressive at Punchestown at the end of May. The trainer said afterwards that good ground is important to him but it is far from that here. He destroyed respectable rivals that day and if he could repeat that on this testing ground he would surely be the strongest of contenders.

Deal Done: could run well at a big price
(photo: The Sun)

Daffern Seal is a non runner on account of the ground so Dermot Weld is represented by Prince Erik, and frankly barring divine intervention has slim chance of victory. No matter what distance he races at he appears to need further and is a frustrating sort.

Front runners generally do very well in this race and Deal Done is one who could run well at a big price. He has been aimed at some similar contests before over further and not stayed but I think the track and distance could suit him ideally.

He goes on any ground and although he is unlikely to be good enough to win, on testing ground where many may not get into it, he will be up front and can hold out for a place.

Following much deliberation it is probably best to stick with the horses who have proven form in higher class races and for win purposes it looks to lie between OUT NOW and Blackstairmountain with preference for the first named given he is proven over longer distances.

Verdict: Out Now – Blackstairmountain – Deal Done

Pintura has fuel to take Topaz

No surprises on day one then, Dermot Weld notches as many winners in two hours as he has had in the last four weeks and it is evident that we could be in for a dozen plus haul again this year.

The feature race on day two is the Topaz Mile at 5:35. A field of 16 line up for the €69k first prize and Dermot Weld’s Rock Critic heads the pack. He has three wins and a place from four runs at Galway and given that he looks twice the horse here as anywhere else he is highly respected.

The Weld team won this last year with Stunning View and Rock Critic follows an identical path of an unplaced effort at Ascot in the Hunt Cup. He concedes weight to all rivals and his task is not an easy one so minor money is a realistic expectation.

There are seven three year olds in the line up and while we have yet to see the best of all of them. Custom Cut is the shortest of them in the market. Having left the Dermot Weld stable in the off season he has won his last four races with a degree of ease but has risen 30lbs in the handicap as a result.

He is 12lbs higher in the weights than his most recent win so it is no easy task to concede weight to older horses and therefore is passed over.

Shane Foley gave a good ride to Sure Reef on Monday evening and the Michael Halford stable could not be in better form with five wins and six places from his last 17 runners. They have Regulation in this contest.

He was a close third in a conditions race last time behind two horse he would have been getting lumps of weight from ordinarily. He was given what looks a fairly hefty seven pound rise in the weights for that but is a good price all the same at 14/1. He could have been drawn better but if he can get a good position early he looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Pintura (grey silks) has since moved stable

Castle Bar Sling has won a bigger race than this in the shape of the Irish Cambridgeshire last August but he does not seem to like Galway with a fourth place the best he has mustered in six runs here.

Royal Blue Star was ran down late to finish runner up in this is 2011 and runs off the same handicap mark now and the seven pound riders allowance brings him into it.

Moran Gra certainly has the quality to be a leading contender but after such a poor run in this 12 months ago is best watched.

Finally to the two UK raiders PINTURA and Spa’s Dancer, the former is a consistent and high quality handicapper in the UK and has finished in the places in races at major festivals at Goodwood and York and a win at Chester’s May meeting.

He is having is first run for trainer Kevin Ryan and that is the only concern but a horse of such consistency one imagines that there was plenty of good opportunities for him across the Irish Sea so it is certainly interesting that he comes here.

This represents a drop in grade from what he is used to in my opinion and the booking of Joseph O’Brien and a plum draw in stall one are all points in his favour.

The other English raider is Spa’s Dancer, he has run well in Ireland before at The Curragh behing the reopposing Bold Thady Quill on Irish Derby weekend and was since third in a very hot contest at Sandown a race in which the 2^nd, 6^th, 7^th, and 8^thplaced horses have won or ran very well since. Chris Hayes who has ridden the winner of this twice before takes the reins.

As always with Galway’s big race of the day it is extremely competitive but the prices are lucrative if you can get the right one.

Verdict: Pintura – Regulation – Rock Critic

Dandy Nichollsmaster of such contests as 5:35 Goodwood

A quick look at the other races and the two mile handicap at 5:00 a field of 20 makes things no easier but Aughnacurraveel is in top form and any rain would aid the cause of this eight year old. He has a nice low weight and has attracted overnight support in the betting.

And finally if you fancy a bet on the UK fare today it is the start of Glorious Goodwood. The final race on the card looks a lottery but it is a race in which trainer Dandy Nicholls has saddled the winner on multiple occasions. He is doubly represented but Fitz Flyer looks the pick on jockey bookings.

He is having his fifth run since changing stables and last time at Ascot was by far his best. This is a drop in grade and provided the ground is good or better he should be throwing his hat in to the ring near the line.

Galway Monday Preview

IT’S here! What a week of racing we have ahead of us Galway and Goodwood and for the enthusiasts plenty of other interesting cards around the UK. Visit this blog daily for a preview of some of the racing. I will attempt to help narrow the fields and throw in the odd bit of advice on what looks a good value bet.

you are here for opinion so without further adieu let’s dive into the big race for day 1 at Ballybrit.

The best Seven Days of the Galway year ahead.

5:35 Carlton Hotel Galway City Handicap

Traditionally one of the hardest puzzles of the week, a field off 20 will line up under the amateur riders for the €42,000 first prize.

Firstly to the favourites - Clarach, it is very difficult to see her being far away as they pass the winning post and at the time of writing 8/1 looks extremely generous. She has won 3 on the spin, 2 of those over hurdles.

The drying ground is certainly in her favour, with a useful young rider Declan Lavery claiming 7lbs off the weight and being drawn well in stall 6 and Course form is in the book which is always a plus at Galway. She comes here amid doubts that she will make the line up for the hurdle. Her credentials are rock solid.

Earls Quarter will also prove popular given his connections but a long story short; despite catching the high quality Rebel Fitz out over hurdles here last autumn, I don’t think he is good enough and is plenty short enough in the betting.

A note of interest is that Robert McNamara who rides most of Dermot Weld’s in similar races is not on Midnight Music and instead goes on Scots Gaelic who managed a fourth place at Royal Ascot two starts ago. The latter was a bit disappointing last time despite the trip not being ideal but this will be much more to his liking and the stable is in form.

Another of Pat Flynn’s representatives is Prince Chaparral, he needs to improve slightly to win but could be a good each way play and despite a big price and having leading Point-to-Point rider Barry O'Neill on his back, he is passed over.

Citizenship won one of Ireland’s biggest handicap hurdles in January and was also an easy winner at Killarney last time out in first time blinkers. That race was ran in a very slow time and he is up in class and 10lbs higher now. While that is a big rise he still holds a strong chance but there is better value to be had.

Oilily: highest rated hurdler in the 5:35 field

Last year’s winner Fosters Cross comes here on the back of a fall last time over hurdles. He lines up off an 8lb higher mark when riders claim is considered and is now 10 years old so others are preferred.

Caim Hill arrives here in fantastic form after a win over fences in Kilbeggan’s feature event 10 days ago. A 10 time visitor to the winners’ enclosure and two from two on the flat he is difficult to oppose but the verdict goes to OILILY.

A remarkably consistent mare her only poor efforts came one after the other in an interrupted seven month spell last year. She has competed at a high level over hurdles in the past and is the highest rated of these in that code.

She has had a lot of placed efforts but with first time cheekpieces at Leopardstown on her last run stuck to the task well to win last time and a repeat of that effort should see her go well. At 14/1 she looks the best value in the races but Clarach makes plenty of appeal also.

Verdict:  Oilily – Clarach – Caim Hill

Elsewhere on the card the 5:00 Claregalway Hotel EBF Maiden looks yet again and as will be the case with maidens through the week to be between Aidan O Brien (L) and Dermot Weld (R).

Line Drummer represents Ballydoyle and ran a good race on debut only six days ago at Tipperary on soft ground behind a potentially useful stable mate. Provided he has recovered he holds leading claims.

Nearly all of Aidan O Brien’s representatives in this contest came after quite a recent run so it can be assumed the ground last week will not have blunted him. He is a son of Galileo and they usually improve with racecourse experience adding another positive to his chances.

Weld who is has won this in the region of 20 times in his training career has Thunder Mountain. He only beat one rival home in a strong maiden at The Curragh in May and despite his trainer’s record I would much rather be on Line Drummer.

I will not take the pleasure of sorting out the rest of the contests from you.

Away from Galway, course specialists Almaty Express and Rough Rock should give you a run for your money at Wolverhampton 7:00 and Yarmouth 3:50 respectively.

(Good luck and those of you who know me don’t be shy on donations should I ‘pox’ a winner or two)

China Can Rock Europe in Champion

IRELAND’S biggest National Hunt Racing festival gets underway at Punchestown tomorrow. A seven race card that will begin at the afternoon time of 3:40 for the fourth year representing that it must be successful in boosting attendances.

Willie Mullins has dominated this meeting for the past few years where he has turned ducks into swans on more than one occasion. Of course he also had and has a number of top class Grade1 contenders and if he has over 10 winners for the week one would not be surprised.

Sizing Europe (L) and Big Zeb meet yet again

The big race on the opening day is the Boylesports.com Champion Chase. Here we have the Big Zeb-Sizing Europe rivalry that stretches back to this meeting in 2007 where Henry De Bromhead’s charge led at the line. The two champions have met six times Big Zeb came out on top in this race last year. But the score is currently 4-2 in favour of Sizing Europe and it is not surprising to see him as an odds-on favourite here.

Finians Rainbow who defeated him at Cheltenham went on to look even better at Aintree and some feel but for the last fence mess up by the officials at Cheltenham that Sizing Europe would indeed have won.

The softened ground is not likely to play to the strength of Sizing Europe but the only one it is likely to suit is Realt Dubh. He comes here a fresh horse with only one run since finishing second to Captain Chris at this meeting last year when he was well behind in the Queen Mother on that occasion. However Noel Meade is without a winner since March and that is a slight concern.

A really interesting contender is China Rock. Ruby Walsh will ride and is two from two on the nine year old. He travelled well yet again in the Gold Cup before not staying, and finally connections have seen sense and dropped him in trip. Amazingly he has only ever had one run at the minimum trip, when second to subsequent Supreme Novices' winner Go Native.

China Rock: has beaten Sizing Europe albeit before over further

He is still available at 33/1 and I expect him to trade at much shorter in running tomorrow evening.

Last year’s third Captain Cee Bee and Gauvain make up the field but have a lot of work to do to win.

It is hard to see beyond Sizing Europe but China Rock is outstanding value and is by no means out of it and could cause an upset under Ruby.

One of the other Grade1 races on the card is the Evening Hearld Champion Novice Hurdle. A small field of five is all that will contest the €50k first prize. It looks to lie between Trifolium and Alderwood. Trifoulim was third behind Cinders and Ashes in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and with the forecast soft going is likely to be a short price favourite.

Alderwood won the County Hurdle, beating subsequent runaway Aintree winner Edgardo Sol into second, before following up at Fairyhouse. He is three years older than Trifolium so may lack the room for improvement of his younger rival.

It is unusual to be writing off Willie Mullins at Puchestown but all three of his horses are held by the two primaries mentioned.

Sir Des Champs looking for 8 in a row

Another poor turnout for a Grade1 contest is the case for the Growise Chapion Novice Chase. Sir Des Champs  is unbeaten over an obstacle of any description and will go off at extremely short odds (currently 1/4). There is absolutely no concerns over anything for him other than he has never ran over three miles or further. That is unlikely to be a hindrance though as he was powering clear in the Jewson and Willie Mullins had seen him as a horse for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival but went the Jewson route because of First Lieutenant’s presence there, who is also owned by Gigginstown.

Mosey Joe was second over hurdles here in 2011 and had looked impressive in three chase starts winning two (finishing 5^th in one where he sprawled on landing a few fences out when leading by over five lengths carrying 12 stone). He was ineligible for novice chases in the UK so has been given a break since. If he resumes in similar form he can be the one to chase home Sir Des Champs.

The big handicap on day one is the 4:55 where a field of 25 will face the starting tape. Former top level contender Snap Tie heads the field and will bid to overcome an absence of over 30 months. The fact that connections have persisted with the 10 year old suggests he still has something in the locker.

JP McManus has a number of contenders but interestingly AP McCoy does not take the ride on either Louisville Lip or Kandari both of which are off weights he can ride at. Kandari has had two runs for Jonjo O Neill and was behind subsequent Cheltenham and Aintree winner Ataglance before being brought down on his return to Ireland at the Fairyhouse meeting.

Ruby Walsh rides Ceol Rua suggesting that is Willie Mullins’ first string. Citizenship won the valuable Boylesports Handicap Hurdle in January and if bouncing back from defeat at Cheltenham is a major player.

Practically everything in the field holds some sort of chance but two I can suggest at fancy prices are Rory Anna and Benash. The first mentioned was in contention at Limerick on her last hurdles start before running out at the last. She always gives her running and the rain would have helped her chance.

Benash has been in and out this year but has put up some good performances in races that were beyond him. He was declared a non runner when entered in this 12 months ago. He ran very well until the approach to the second last at Fairyhouse over 2m6f. The drop back to two miles should suit (record of 21214 at the distance) and the rain will also have helped his chance. At 40/1 he is worth a bet despite his in and out form.

BEST BETS ON THE CARD: CHINA ROCK, BENASH (EW) and RORY ANNA (EW)

Aintree Card Bowl-ed Over With Quality

The spectacular National Fences

CHELTENHAM is always seen as the best week of the year for national hunt racing, it is built towards for months and is full of hype and excitement. Aintree is a massive festival too but thankfully from the point of view of the punter does not have the same hype.

One thing that can be seen nowhere else is the spectacle of the Aintree fences and we are treated to a race a day over them for the Grand National Meeting.

The say they save the best to last but at Aintree the best goes first. Big Buck’s is seeking his fourth consecutive win in the Liverpool Hurdle at 2:00 against a weak field. Should he win he will set the record for most consecutive wins in National Hunt racing with 17, and break Sir Ken’s record stretching back half a century.

Arguably his best ever performance was in this race last year and to see him repeat that would put a smile on any face.

Big Buck's (L) on his way to a stylish vistory in 2011

But from a betting perspective is there really any reason to get involved? Big Buck’s is odds of 1/4 for victory (value for a horse like him you could say!). Who can chase him home, or since there is three places at least there is an EW option for punters. 

Paul Nicholls has Tidal Bay and Poungach also. The former has plenty of form at the track and was 4^th in this in 2010 when trained by Howard Johnson, the latter is just out of novice company, he won a handicap at Sandown easily and fared ok behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham in January.

He has the quality but there may be better options despite Nicholls turning up an option of going the handicap route at this festival.

 Won In The Dark was ridden for a place here last year and duly did the job coming home well behind Big Buck’s to finish 3^rd. He is notoriously hard to win with but is capable of competing for minor money in the top races. If the race pans out in a similar nature to 2011 then he could be worth chancing for a place at big odds (currently a 66/1 shot).

Smad Place is second in the market and never runs a bad race, improved to come third in the World Hurdle, he is most likely to come second. There will be races to be had next season I imagine but they will be the ones without Big Buck’s in them.

The Anniversary Hurdle for 4-y-o’s looks one of the strongest renewals of the contest in recent years. The winner, third, fourth, sixth and last hurdle faller from the Triumph Hurdle all reoppose.

Countrywide Flame was a somewhat surprise winner at Cheltenham but now looks the one to beat. Grumeti has just under four lengths to find and the return to a flat track looks likely to suit, he holds Paul Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets on both meetings but this will be just his third run over obstacles and could improve.

Pearl Swan was flying up the straight at Cheltenham before falling at the last. You would have to think he would have been in the first four. If he gets over that and does not fall behind early on again he is sure to play a leading role under Ruby Walsh. Hinterland comes here fresh but the fact he is passed over by Ruby he can probably be discounted.

Saddler’s Risk has been very much a talking horse this year and would have to improve in a whole host of areas to win.

A tough race to call but there is no need to look away from the top of the market and take your choice from those who contested the Triumph. Personally I would be with Pearl Swan who will have improved for the experience.

Riverside Theatre can improve on the  Ryanair performance

The highlight of Day1 and perhaps the festival on the Mildmay Course is the Betfair Bowl at 3:05. A field of 11 includes the last two winners of this event, Nacarat and What A Friend. They look to have work to do this year though. The former is 11-y-o now and the race fell apart a touch last year with a couple underperforming. What A Friend took a heavy fall last time in the Gold Cup and may not be capable of beating the favourites here although holds a better chance than his 12/1 price says.

I would love to see Hunt Ball win just for the antics of his fantastically entertaining and passionate owner Anthony Knott. This horse will be having his ninth run of the campaign that started out in the lowest possible grade, a class5 at Folkestone. He now takes on one of the biggest staying races in the season.

Nicky Henderson has the primaries; Riverside Theatre and Burton Port. Barry Geraghty has stuck with Riverside Theatre after their gutsy and gusty performance to win the Ryanair. Nothing really went right for him that day other than Captain Chris! He surely will perform better here and if he was good enough to win last time there is no reason to desert him now.

The horse does stay the distance although this is only his second run over 3m+.

Burton Port won over C&D as a novice and did well to finish fourth after labouring for a while in the Gold Cup. That can be put down to the ‘bounce factor’ following his lay-off and is likely to be far more dangerous now. However that Gold Cup may turn out to be one of the poorest in years and therefore Riverside Theatre is preferred.

Medermit also deserves a mention being only a length behind Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair. There is no reason to prefer him over the longer trip as he was outstayed near the line at Cheltenham.

BEST BET: RIVERSIDE THEATRE

Market Rasen Preview Tuesday



Richard Johnson could be smiling tomorrow
with a good book of rides
photo: racing post



THE OPENER at 2:20 has a field of seven where a case can be made for all, conversely it is easy enough to oppose them all.

Enroller was a group horse on the flat and has run respectable in his last two hurdle runs. He is Noel Fehily’s only ride on the day, he has to give weight all round and may have to settle for minor money.

Langley’s best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground but he has only had 4 runs for Tim Vaughan and his record is F112. He has apparently improved for the addition of a tongue strap and with Richard Johnson back on board he is a player.

Osgood is a rare Mick Channon jumps representative. He was second to the Pipe’s “good thing”, Katchmore lost time. He appears here on the same mark. His best NH form is on a sound surface and he should be in the shakeup in an all round competitive affair.

An incredible tight market for the 2:50 with Union Island, having his first run over hurdles for Brian Ellison, the outsider of the quintet. He has been disappointing since returning from a break and is best watched.

The favourite at time of writing is Royal Entourage. He is up the weights after racking up a hat trick and is a leading contender again.

Hoback Junction was highly tried when with Lucy Wadham and ran ok last time to finish third. He appeared to lack fitness when fading late on but with that run under his belt he should be a major contender.

Presenting Ace and D’Gigi will need to show more than they have already to win but are by no means out of the reckoning.

Small but competitive fields are the order of the day. Not one for the each way punter.

The 3:20 is another tough contest to unravel. O Crotaigh has three wins and a nose margin second place at the venue and despite being six pounds higher than his last victory further progress is not ruled out from him back at this track.

His front running tactics should stand him in good stead in a small field. It is not hard to see why Midnight Sail is favourite. He is back in form following a layoff and went close on his most recent run behind a rival completing a four timer.

The step up in distance should also suit and his hurdle rating suggests that he is well in here.

A five horse class 5 chase where only one horse has a win over fences in the UK sounds like it should be straightforward at 3:50. But that horse, KERCABELLEC, is 14 years old, seven pounds out if the handicap and has had more horses finish in front of him than behind him this season.

No other horse jumps from the page with only slight appeal from the favourite Sacre Toi.

Kercabellec returned to the winners enclosure twice this time last year to end a four year drought. His mark is at the same lowly level here. He has gained five of his seven wins in March, the trainer has his horses in excellent form and at 20-1 he is worth a punt in an absolutely terrible looking race.

With absolutely nothing doing in the 4:20 and without some information not on the form book the only option I can see if getting financially involved is Charles. Whether or not he comes back fit after a Winter break is a question but if he does he should be better than the greater majority of these.

Dawn Commander (r): during his days in Ireland
photo: irishracing

If you are at Market Rasen and asking yourself will this day ever end, well there is just two more races and at last we see a couple of horses that can run faster than the ambulance.

Dawn Commander contested the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but was unable to make a serious impact into proceedings. He previously was just behind weekend winner Golden Call when conceding weight at Bangor in February.

On that form he will be very tough to beat. Finnegan Paddy has been consistent against some handy rivals all Winter but he is yet to get his head in front so is opposed.

Steve Gollings does well at the Licolnshire venue Lincolnshire  , he saddles All That Remains. The horse has not run over 3 miles since winning a Point-to-Point in Ireland. It does appear as if the step up should suit however as he was outpaced recently over 2m1f at Doncaster.

He looks the most potent threat to Dawn Commander.Lincolnshi

Jonny Rye was just denied by last year’s Champion Bumber second Destroyer Deployed as he was third at Southwell earlier this month, a repeat of that should see him be hard to pass again.

The Bumper at 5:20 concludes the action. House Party was well beaten last time at Newbury following a very promising debut behind Call Back who has done ok since. Getting a four year old allowance he should go close to winning.

Scarlet Fire who’s penalty is negated by the riders claim must hold a strong chance again. And of the debutants Scarlet Fire looks the pick for a combination that had a winner in the last few weeks.

BEST BETS: DAWN COMMANDER, KERCABELLEC

From Alfie Spinner to Virginia Ash, its competitive as ever!

NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE
This race is among the best at the festival with many future top class horses having contested it. Examples from the last decade are Hardy Eustace (1^st), Denman (2^nd), Peddlers Cross (1^st) and Rock On Ruby (2^nd).

The market suggests that Simonsig has the best chance, he has a big reputation and that is probably why he is so clear in the betting but his form so far has not proven anything.

MONKSLAND was an easy winner on soft/heavy ground at Navan in January and the runner up has since been a close second to Boston Bob and won another race also. Noel Meade and Paul Carberry won this with Nicanor in 2006 and Monskland could repeat the trick.

Ireland’s other main hopes are Bennefficient and Sous Le Cieux. They were first and second in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m2f but the step up should not be a problem for either.

Batonnier improved out of all recognition to win at the course in January but is a tad short in the betting on what he has achieved. Cotton Mill comes here unbeaten, he was a wide margin winner of his first two races and just got the better of last Saturday’s winner Ambion Wood in very testing conditions at Warwick earlier in the year.

As long as he has recovered from them exploits there is no reason he cannot go well at 16-1. There are 18 entered but it really only concerns a handful.

Grand Crus: Can he break the World Hurdle runner-up hoodoo
photo: thisiscornwall.co.uk

RSA CHASE

The connections of GRAND CRUS have opted for the novice route and leaving a stab at the Gold Cup for another year.

He was an impressive winner at Kempton on Boxing Day and the third that day Bobs Worth takes him on again.

Grand Crus was second to the all conquering Big Buck’s in last year’s World Hurdle but the last two runners up in that, Punchestowns and Time for Rupert, were both beaten favourites in this contest. Although trends for this do not particularly favour David Pipe’s grey the opposition have too much to prove to take him on at the prices.

Bobs Worth is three from three at Cheltenham but was beaten again last time at Ascot, maybe a return to a left handed track will suit, and on trends he is the most likely winner.

First Lieutenant has not been at his best all year but reportedly had a back problem in the early season. He beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby a head in last year’s Neptune Hurdle and is a big threat on that form.

Paul Nicholls’ string usually does well in this contest and Join Together deserves a mention. His form has worked out quite well, he has won twice over fences at the track and is the only course and distance winner to line up. He has been kept fresh for this and is the choice of Ruby Walsh.

Can he defend his crown?
Sizing Europe beats Big Zeb in 2011
photo: betting.betfair.co.uk

Grand Crus is the one they all have to beat but is certainly not bulletproof.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

A field of eight goes to post that includes the winners from the past two years, SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb.

Moscow Flyer was the only horse older than nine to win it since 1998 but I do not think Sizing Europe has been reading much statistics. If anything he has looked even better this year when winning impressively on his last two starts.

There does not appear to be any real threat, Finian’s Rainbow was headed late on in the Victor Chandler Chase in January and was second in last year’s Arkle over this circuit.

Gauvain, Kauto Stone and Wishfull Thinking all probably prefer a bit further. Realt Dubh runs his first race of the season and there is no reason to see why Big Zeb can defeat his old rival.

Even money should not be a deterrent. Im So Lucky would be just that if he can make the frame given his horrific Cheltenham record, although he ran his best race in some time at Newbury behind Sprinter Sacre and could be one to look out for before the season is out.

CORAL CUP

Always one of the hottest races of the whole festival this year is every bit as difficult to unravel, David Pipe looks to hold a massive chance of gaining victory. He is represented by Star of Angels (4^th in this in 2009 before injury, winner last time), Consigliere (reverts from fences and better on a softer surface), POOLE MASTER (good novice hurdle form, well in at the weights, still unexposed) and recent French import Balgarry (most recent form is very strong but stepping up in trip).

Poole Master (right): well in on handicap rating
photo: Sportinglife.com

Like the Champion Chase the last two winners line up again –Spirit River and Carlito Brigante, the former needs to bounce back after losing his way over fences but Carlito Brigante’s only ever handicap run was in this last year and has ran well at a higher level in his career so may have a strong chance of repeating the trick carring 12lbs more.

Third Intention, Act Of Kalanisi , Get Me Out Of Here, and Final Approach all have a string claim. As you can see the race has plenty of strength and depth but it could pay to side with David Pipe with Poole Master and Star Of Angels both good each way prices.
Poole Master's jockey Chris Honour only needs one more win to ride out his claim. A goal after which he said he would retire, and what a story it would be if he could visit the winners enclosure at the Cheltenham festival on his last ride.

THE UNDERCARD

The Fred Winter is a bit of a lottery every year as the runners are relatively inexperienced and do not have a strong level of form. Its more about cleaning up the Triumph Hurdle than anything else.

But if you must buy a ticket for this lottery you could do worse than Royal Bonsai at 20-1. The John Quinn trained animal beat the consistent and subsequent winner Eagle Rock. He had a run on the All Weather in February so as not to increase his handicap mark. I have almost talked myself around now and he may well be worth an investment after all.

We could talk about ifs and buts about the Champion Bumper all evening, if I said to steer clear of the Fred Winter then definitely avoid this unless you are privy to reliable information. Yes many good horses do contest it but we do not know them yet. Royal Guardsman was a comprehensive winner of a strong Ascot bumber.

The Tizzards won this with Cue Card in 2010 and their charge can give a good account here.

The day kicks off with the four mile Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase and I see no reason to seek a big price here.

Allee Garde was a close third in a Grade1 at Leopardstown and he is taken to win for the father and son pairing of Willie and Patrick Mullins. Teaforthree and Harry The Viking look likely to play a leading part in the closing stages also.

So let’s hope it’s not the bloodbath some of us saw on day one. Have fun and God Speed!

BEST BETS: MONKSLAND, POOLE MASTER (EW) & STAR OF ANGELS (EW)