BY CONRAD CLANCY
THE Irish National Hunt season “proper” is now underway with
the first all age Grade one of the season, the JN Wine Champion Chase now in
the offing let us examine what the demographic of the 43 individual horses who
were the winner of an Irish Grade 1 in the past five seasons.
The place you must nearly always start in a top class race
is the favourite. Backing all favourites blind (backing both horses in event of
joint favourites) would have left you a healthy profit margin of twenty times
your investment for a level stake. This is mildly surprising considering that
17 of the 39 winning favourites went off at odds on and the biggest price of an
obliging jolly was 100/30.
Table 1
Field Size
|
Num. of races
|
Winning Favourite
|
Level Stakes +/-
|
<5
|
7
|
4
|
+0.71
|
5-7
|
30
|
21
|
+10.70
|
8+
|
28
|
14
|
+8.59
|
Double figures
|
13
|
8
|
+9.44
|
You may say, 'big whoop these small field and often poorly
contested races go to the best horse', but read on. Yes price has been a useful indicator
of winners generally. Only five winners returned at a double figure price and
except for the remarkably generous 14/1 about double Champion Hurdler Hardy
Eustace in the four runner Morgiana Hurdle in 2008, all have come at the
Punchestown Festival and to narrow it further - three have been in the Guinness
Gold Cup (Planet of Sound at 14/1, and Follow The Plan and China Rock both at
20/1).
As mentioned odds on favourites have won 17 races, while
there have only been three odds-on losers, two of these came in the Morgiana
Hurdle and the other was Kauto Star. An 85 percent strike rate shows that odds
on favourites are as formidable as they should be. Backing each and every one
would have been a slow but sure way to success.
As is the case with all horse races, previous achievements
are a good guideline to a horse’s chance. Of the 65 race winners 48 had already
won a Grade One and only four had yet to notch a win at Grade two at least.
The quartet were Synchronised who had won a number of top
staying handicaps already. Quel Esprit who won a substandard Irish Hennessy in
February 2012, What A Friend, winning the Lexus after a runner up placing to
the mighty Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup and finally Sizing Europe in the
2008 Irish Champion Hurdle when he was very much the up and coming horse after
winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in impressive fashion.
Flat form is also a good guide to winners of the leading
hurdle contests. There were 20 two mile hurdle races staged in the sample
period and 18 winners of those had won a flat race previously. While flat form
may be a good guide to the short distance hurdle winners, just a solitary
staying chaser (Kempes, Irish Hennessy) had won on the level.
Irish Grade one winners are normally prolific winners. Those
who took home the top hurdle races had won an average of seven National Hunt
races previously while chase winners have averaged eight previous jumps wins.
Sublimity was the only horse beyond his first season outside
of the novice grade to have won less than a handful of previous races, but he
had been hampered by injury and not forgetting one of those three victories was
the Champion Hurdle.
Statistics show that winning after coming in from the cold
is rare, horses in form are very much the ones to be on. Of the 58 winners in
the list that had completed the course on their most recent National Hunt run, 28
had won, only six were worse than third last time out. Almost all of those who
finished down the field last time out had done so in competitive events at
Cheltenham or Aintree.
One name will spring to mind immediately when top flight Irish
races are mentioned is Willie Mullins. In the past five seasons the Carlow
trainer has had contestants in 46 of the all age Irish Grade one races,
saddling 16 winners, a strike rate of more than one in three.
The most interesting thing about Mullins’ record is that
after the turn of the year he has a far better win ratio than in the early
season. He has sent out 35 representatives in the 22 races in the first half of
the season and returned four winners (11.4 percent). Compare this to the second
half of the season; here he has sent out 48 runners in 24 races and won half of
them (12).
 |
| Pointing the way: Willie Mullins was the man to follow and that trend looks likely to continue photo: rte.ie |
The question that is of most importance to punters, is it
profitable to back him blind? The answer is no. If you backed each and every
runner for €10 you would have a level stakes loss of €308.40. And even second
half of season grade one winners would have left you €70 in the red.
However, the fact that he has multiple representatives in a
large amount of these races would drain from the profit of the first string. No
second string (predicated on longer price in market) Mullins representative has
won an all age Irish Grade One in the sample period so if we discount these
from consideration the picture changes drastically.
His first strings have a strike rate of almost 35 percent
(16 from 46). And if you had made it your new years’ resolution to back all of
Willie Mullins’ first string for the last five years you would now have a
healthy profit margin.
Their record in the second half of the season is 50 percent
and would have given you sizable profit, not bad considering that 10 of the 12
were priced 3/1 or shorter as the tapes went up.
Table 2: Willie Mullins Record
Races Contested
|
Runners
|
Winners
|
~% Strike Rate
|
+/-
|
|
Overall
|
46
|
83
|
16
|
19
|
-30.84
|
Pre Turn of year
|
22
|
35
|
4
|
11
|
-23.77
|
Post Turn of year
|
24
|
48
|
12
|
25
|
-7.07
|
First String (Post turn of year)
|
46 (24)
|
[see left]
|
16 (12)
|
35 (50)
|
+6.16 (+28.93)
|
 |
| Paul Nicholls: Has had 10 winners in Ireland's top races since 2007 (photo: betting.betfair.com) |
Raiders from the UK are always given due respect when
contesting races here and judging by their record, rightly so. The runners from
across the Irish Sea have had at least one runner in 35 Irish Grade Ones in the
past five seasons and have taken home the prize on 18 of those occasions.
Backing all UK runners who started as favourite would have
left you a healthy profit margin with a dozen of them obliging.
Three mile chases are the most targeted races by UK
challengers with them having 60 percent of their runners in them. They have
been contestants in 19 races in this category and the prize has gone the Anglo
way on 12 of those occasions.
Table 3: UK Runners Record
Events Contested
|
Number Runners
|
Wins
|
~% Strike Rate
|
Level Stakes +/-
|
|
Total
|
35
|
76
|
18
|
24
|
-3.29
|
SP Fav
|
18
|
18
|
12
|
67
|
+8.21
|
Hurdle
|
9
|
19
|
2
|
11
|
-11.67
|
Chase
|
26
|
57
|
16
|
28
|
+8.38
|
3m+ Chase
|
19
|
45
|
12
|
27
|
+11.33
|
<3m Chase
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
33
|
-2.95
|
Next time you are looking at an Irish Grade One contest here
is a summary of how to narrow the field:
· In Steeplchases -Trained in the UK AND favourite.
· Won, placed on last completed start.
· Won at Grade 2 level or better in past.
· Prolific winners in career so far.
· Willie Mullins’ first string, especially in the second half of the season.
· A previous winner on the Flat for two mile Hurdle races.
· Official Rating 142 or higher
 |
| Multi Irish G1 winner, Hurricane Fly. How many will he bag this term? (photo: university times) |
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