NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE
This race is among the best at the festival with many future top class horses having contested it. Examples from the last decade are Hardy Eustace (1st), Denman (2nd), Peddlers Cross (1st) and Rock On Ruby (2nd).
This race is among the best at the festival with many future top class horses having contested it. Examples from the last decade are Hardy Eustace (1st), Denman (2nd), Peddlers Cross (1st) and Rock On Ruby (2nd).
The market suggests that Simonsig has the best chance, he has a big reputation and that is probably why he is so clear in the betting but his form so far has not proven anything.
MONKSLAND was an easy winner on soft/heavy ground at Navan in January and the runner up has since been a close second to Boston Bob and won another race also. Noel Meade and Paul Carberry won this with Nicanor in 2006 and Monskland could repeat the trick.
Ireland’s other main hopes are Bennefficient and Sous Le Cieux. They were first and second in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m2f but the step up should not be a problem for either.
Batonnier improved out of all recognition to win at the course in January but is a tad short in the betting on what he has achieved. Cotton Mill comes here unbeaten, he was a wide margin winner of his first two races and just got the better of last Saturday’s winner Ambion Wood in very testing conditions at Warwick earlier in the year.
As long as he has recovered from them exploits there is no reason he cannot go well at 16-1. There are 18 entered but it really only concerns a handful.
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| Grand Crus: Can he break the World Hurdle runner-up hoodoo photo: thisiscornwall.co.uk |
RSA CHASE
The connections of GRAND CRUS have opted for the novice route and leaving a stab at the Gold Cup for another year.
He was an impressive winner at Kempton on Boxing Day and the third that day Bobs Worth takes him on again.
Grand Crus was second to the all conquering Big Buck’s in last year’s World Hurdle but the last two runners up in that, Punchestowns and Time for Rupert, were both beaten favourites in this contest. Although trends for this do not particularly favour David Pipe’s grey the opposition have too much to prove to take him on at the prices.
Bobs Worth is three from three at Cheltenham but was beaten again last time at Ascot, maybe a return to a left handed track will suit, and on trends he is the most likely winner.
First Lieutenant has not been at his best all year but reportedly had a back problem in the early season. He beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby a head in last year’s Neptune Hurdle and is a big threat on that form.
Paul Nicholls’ string usually does well in this contest and Join Together deserves a mention. His form has worked out quite well, he has won twice over fences at the track and is the only course and distance winner to line up. He has been kept fresh for this and is the choice of Ruby Walsh.
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| Can he defend his crown? Sizing Europe beats Big Zeb in 2011 photo: betting.betfair.co.uk |
Grand Crus is the one they all have to beat but is certainly not bulletproof.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
A field of eight goes to post that includes the winners from the past two years, SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb.
Moscow Flyer was the only horse older than nine to win it since 1998 but I do not think Sizing Europe has been reading much statistics. If anything he has looked even better this year when winning impressively on his last two starts.
There does not appear to be any real threat, Finian’s Rainbow was headed late on in the Victor Chandler Chase in January and was second in last year’s Arkle over this circuit.
Gauvain, Kauto Stone and Wishfull Thinking all probably prefer a bit further. Realt Dubh runs his first race of the season and there is no reason to see why Big Zeb can defeat his old rival.
Even money should not be a deterrent. Im So Lucky would be just that if he can make the frame given his horrific Cheltenham record, although he ran his best race in some time at Newbury behind Sprinter Sacre and could be one to look out for before the season is out.
CORAL CUP
Always one of the hottest races of the whole festival this year is every bit as difficult to unravel, David Pipe looks to hold a massive chance of gaining victory. He is represented by Star of Angels (4th in this in 2009 before injury, winner last time), Consigliere (reverts from fences and better on a softer surface), POOLE MASTER (good novice hurdle form, well in at the weights, still unexposed) and recent French import Balgarry (most recent form is very strong but stepping up in trip).
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| Poole Master (right): well in on handicap rating photo: Sportinglife.com |
Like the Champion Chase the last two winners line up again –Spirit River and Carlito Brigante, the former needs to bounce back after losing his way over fences but Carlito Brigante’s only ever handicap run was in this last year and has ran well at a higher level in his career so may have a strong chance of repeating the trick carring 12lbs more.
Third Intention, Act Of Kalanisi , Get Me Out Of Here, and Final Approach all have a string claim. As you can see the race has plenty of strength and depth but it could pay to side with David Pipe with Poole Master and Star Of Angels both good each way prices.
Poole Master's jockey Chris Honour only needs one more win to ride out his claim. A goal after which he said he would retire, and what a story it would be if he could visit the winners enclosure at the Cheltenham festival on his last ride.
Poole Master's jockey Chris Honour only needs one more win to ride out his claim. A goal after which he said he would retire, and what a story it would be if he could visit the winners enclosure at the Cheltenham festival on his last ride.
THE UNDERCARD
The Fred Winter is a bit of a lottery every year as the runners are relatively inexperienced and do not have a strong level of form. Its more about cleaning up the Triumph Hurdle than anything else.
But if you must buy a ticket for this lottery you could do worse than Royal Bonsai at 20-1. The John Quinn trained animal beat the consistent and subsequent winner Eagle Rock. He had a run on the All Weather in February so as not to increase his handicap mark. I have almost talked myself around now and he may well be worth an investment after all.
We could talk about ifs and buts about the Champion Bumper all evening, if I said to steer clear of the Fred Winter then definitely avoid this unless you are privy to reliable information. Yes many good horses do contest it but we do not know them yet. Royal Guardsman was a comprehensive winner of a strong Ascot bumber.
The Tizzards won this with Cue Card in 2010 and their charge can give a good account here.
The day kicks off with the four mile Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase and I see no reason to seek a big price here.
Allee Garde was a close third in a Grade1 at Leopardstown and he is taken to win for the father and son pairing of Willie and Patrick Mullins. Teaforthree and Harry The Viking look likely to play a leading part in the closing stages also.
So let’s hope it’s not the bloodbath some of us saw on day one. Have fun and God Speed!
BEST BETS: MONKSLAND, POOLE MASTER (EW) & STAR OF ANGELS (EW)
Great post, Thanks for the tips and knowledge.
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