Favourites, Mullins and how Anglo can make you money - A recent guide to Irish Grade 1s

BY CONRAD CLANCY

THE Irish National Hunt season “proper” is now underway with the first all age Grade one of the season, the JN Wine Champion Chase now in the offing let us examine what the demographic of the 43 individual horses who were the winner of an Irish Grade 1 in the past five seasons.

The place you must nearly always start in a top class race is the favourite. Backing all favourites blind (backing both horses in event of joint favourites) would have left you a healthy profit margin of twenty times your investment for a level stake. This is mildly surprising considering that 17 of the 39 winning favourites went off at odds on and the biggest price of an obliging jolly was 100/30.

Table 1

Field Size	Num. of races	Winning Favourite	Level Stakes +/-
<5	7	4	+0.71
5-7	30	21	+10.70
8+	28	14	+8.59
Double figures	13	8	+9.44

You may say, 'big whoop these small field and often poorly contested races go to the best horse', but read on. Yes price has been a useful indicator of winners generally. Only five winners returned at a double figure price and except for the remarkably generous 14/1 about double Champion Hurdler Hardy Eustace in the four runner Morgiana Hurdle in 2008, all have come at the Punchestown Festival and to narrow it further - three have been in the Guinness Gold Cup (Planet of Sound at 14/1, and Follow The Plan and China Rock both at 20/1).

As mentioned odds on favourites have won 17 races, while there have only been three odds-on losers, two of these came in the Morgiana Hurdle and the other was Kauto Star. An 85 percent strike rate shows that odds on favourites are as formidable as they should be. Backing each and every one would have been a slow but sure way to success.

As is the case with all horse races, previous achievements are a good guideline to a horse’s chance. Of the 65 race winners 48 had already won a Grade One and only four had yet to notch a win at Grade two at least.

The quartet were Synchronised who had won a number of top staying handicaps already. Quel Esprit who won a substandard Irish Hennessy in February 2012, What A Friend, winning the Lexus after a runner up placing to the mighty Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup and finally Sizing Europe in the 2008 Irish Champion Hurdle when he was very much the up and coming horse after winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in impressive fashion.

Flat form is also a good guide to winners of the leading hurdle contests. There were 20 two mile hurdle races staged in the sample period and 18 winners of those had won a flat race previously. While flat form may be a good guide to the short distance hurdle winners, just a solitary staying chaser (Kempes, Irish Hennessy) had won on the level.

Irish Grade one winners are normally prolific winners. Those who took home the top hurdle races had won an average of seven National Hunt races previously while chase winners have averaged eight previous jumps wins.

Sublimity was the only horse beyond his first season outside of the novice grade to have won less than a handful of previous races, but he had been hampered by injury and not forgetting one of those three victories was the Champion Hurdle.

Statistics show that winning after coming in from the cold is rare, horses in form are very much the ones to be on. Of the 58 winners in the list that had completed the course on their most recent National Hunt run, 28 had won, only six were worse than third last time out. Almost all of those who finished down the field last time out had done so in competitive events at Cheltenham or Aintree.

One name will spring to mind immediately when top flight Irish races are mentioned is Willie Mullins. In the past five seasons the Carlow trainer has had contestants in 46 of the all age Irish Grade one races, saddling 16 winners, a strike rate of more than one in three.

The most interesting thing about Mullins’ record is that after the turn of the year he has a far better win ratio than in the early season. He has sent out 35 representatives in the 22 races in the first half of the season and returned four winners (11.4 percent). Compare this to the second half of the season; here he has sent out 48 runners in 24 races and won half of them (12).

Pointing the way: Willie Mullins was the man to follow and that trend looks likely to continue
photo: rte.ie

The question that is of most importance to punters, is it profitable to back him blind? The answer is no. If you backed each and every runner for €10 you would have a level stakes loss of €308.40. And even second half of season grade one winners would have left you €70 in the red.

However, the fact that he has multiple representatives in a large amount of these races would drain from the profit of the first string. No second string (predicated on longer price in market) Mullins representative has won an all age Irish Grade One in the sample period so if we discount these from consideration the picture changes drastically.

His first strings have a strike rate of almost 35 percent (16 from 46). And if you had made it your new years’ resolution to back all of Willie Mullins’ first string for the last five years you would now have a healthy profit margin.

Their record in the second half of the season is 50 percent and would have given you sizable profit, not bad considering that 10 of the 12 were priced 3/1 or shorter as the tapes went up.

Table 2: Willie Mullins Record

	Races Contested	Runners	Winners	~% Strike Rate	+/-
Overall	46	83	16	19	-30.84
Pre Turn of year	22	35	4	11	-23.77
Post Turn of year	24	48	12	25	-7.07
First String (Post turn of year)	46 (24)	[see left]	16 (12)	35 (50)	+6.16 (+28.93)

Paul Nicholls:  Has had 10 winners in Ireland's top races since 2007
(photo: betting.betfair.com)

Raiders from the UK are always given due respect when contesting races here and judging by their record, rightly so. The runners from across the Irish Sea have had at least one runner in 35 Irish Grade Ones in the past five seasons and have taken home the prize on 18 of those occasions.

Backing all UK runners who started as favourite would have left you a healthy profit margin with a dozen of them obliging.

Three mile chases are the most targeted races by UK challengers with them having 60 percent of their runners in them. They have been contestants in 19 races in this category and the prize has gone the Anglo way on 12 of those occasions.

Table 3: UK Runners Record

	Events Contested	Number Runners	Wins	~% Strike Rate	Level Stakes +/-
Total	35	76	18	24	-3.29
SP Fav	18	18	12	67	+8.21
Hurdle	9	19	2	11	-11.67
Chase	26	57	16	28	+8.38
3m+ Chase	19	45	12	27	+11.33
<3m Chase	7	12	4	33	-2.95

Next time you are looking at an Irish Grade One contest here is a summary of how to narrow the field:

·         Favourite
·         In Steeplchases -Trained in the UK AND favourite.
·         Won, placed on last completed start.
·         Won at Grade 2 level or better in past.
·         Prolific winners in career so far.
·         Willie Mullins’ first string, especially in the second half of the season.
·         A previous winner on the Flat for two mile Hurdle races.
·         Official Rating 142 or higher

Multi Irish G1 winner, Hurricane Fly. How many will he bag this term?
(photo: university times)

The Riddle of the 2012 Cambridgeshire

A little riddle of the 2012 Cambridgeshire, hope you enjoy

When Making Eyes at this year’s Cambridgeshire you know that finding the winner means you could be handsomely Rewarded. If you had Prince of Johanne last year you definitely were.

It is the type of race that could leave you in a Fury, you may be a Man of Action all week, hunting and gathering for clues, not unlike an early Navajo Chief.

But these big handicaps are races for which punters have Moran Gra (much love). Finding the winner will not be Swiftly Done, there is so much to Talk About, draw, ground, pace and more, enough to make your head Levitate with information.

You will fight like a King’s Warrior to get it right, his trainer will be hoping he isn’t beaten by his ex-wife’s Mull Of Killough. A Loving Spirit set sail there a few years ago.

Chill The Kite a moment, I see Mijhaar will be contesting yet another big contest, he has given Bookies Licence To Till so far this Summer, it is likely that followers will need a Credit Swap to get funds to go on again.

No chance of getting that from BancNuanahEireann, they are still talking of Boom and Bust there. It is hard to get anything even for their most Excellent Guest. There would be a better chance from a Spanish Duke in Anderiego bailing you out.

In a field of 35 silks a horse with the colours of Burano would make it easier to identify, the white coat of Jack's Revenge one that will be easy to spot. With such a large field you just hope your selection will get the Start Right.

Spa’s Dancer has shot up the handicap, but with only one win this term that is something that is likely to make his trainer Edmaaj (Ed mad).

Beware of any strong tips for this contest, anyone giving one could be like the News of the World reporter posing as an Arabian Star, but he is more than likely a Double Dealer also. One man you can usually trust in these contests is Tom Segal and he has gone for Bronze Angel.

I don’t know how Mukhadram is favourite but then again opinions on this one will vary like the distance from Dragonera to the Silvery Moon.

So to the Postscript – I think that at 40/1 last year’s runner up Stevie Thunder could be overpriced and could run into a place again with Graham Gibbons having a 50% strike rate for Ian Williams.

Now the time for Out to get Deal Done

We roll onto day three already in what seems like a blink. Pintura couldn’t get the job done yesterday when headed in the last 50 yards and having traded at 1/25 in running.

The jumps action takes centre stage for the next two days and the first of the showcase races is the www.thetote.com Galway Plate Handicap Chase over the 2m6f trip.

A field of 22 are declared and the weights are headed by Follow The Plan. He is a difficult horse to get a handle on, beaten at Gowran Park by 27 lengths before going on to win the Betfred Bowl at Aintree in convincing fashion.

Out Now (27) finishing 2nd in the Irish Grand National
(photo: Meath Chronicle)

He is a three time winner at the highest level over fences and has had many the fellow Grade1 winners in his trail. Even though he is a high class horse in the spring and preferably on good ground he has never won a handicap of any description from seven attempts.

It would be ludicrous to write him off and there would be worse bets at 20/1 but he will do well to concede almost a stone all round and is passed over.

Last year’s runner up Wise Old Owl has not been seen since and that has to be a negative in a race of this nature. He gets the assistance of Tony McCoy whose last winner at Galway was in this very race in 2010.

The horse is a model of consistency and his only run outside of the first two home came on his racecourse debut. He has avoided soft ground in his career so far so whether or not he will handle it is a question mark.

Willie Mullins gained his first victory in the race last year with Blazing Tempo and this time around Blackstairmountain, a Grade1 winning novice at Leopardstown at Christmas and a good record on soft or heavy going as is anticipated in this race he is a worthy favourite and looks sure to be in the frame.

The only doubt is whether he stays 2m6f. He has finished second on two occasions at 2m4f, despite them being against very good rivals he did shut down completely in the final 100 yards on both of them when apparently having the race won. I imagine he will be ridden patiently and his is a solid one for each way insurance.

One who has been well support since Monday is Out Now, he was available at 16/1 just last Saturday and now is half that price. He was second in the Irish Grand National when not getting home over near a mile further than this.

Barry Geraghty will be wasting to make the 10 stone two pound weight and that must be taken as a sign of confidence. He is versatile regarding ground, distance and racing position so he looks a solid prospect and getting weight from all his main rivals he could be the one to give Edward O’Grady victory here.

The trainer also has one time Champion Hurdle second Osana who ran well to come second at Kilbeggan 12 days ago. He has much less weight on his back this time and with David Casey who seems to pop up on big handicap winners with a degree of regularity he must be respected.However, no horse older than 10 has won the Plate in the past decade. 

JP Mc Manus shoots six bullets at the €120,400 first prize. Other than Wise Old Owl and Osana he has Bob Lingo, Alpine Eagle, Shot From The Hip and last and by no means least Harolds Cross.

JP McManus: Mob Handed in Plate

With JP McManus horses you never quite know which one will have his day but there can only be one winner. If the last reserve Harold’s Cross gets in he is a very interesting contender. Rewind 12 months and he would have come here a strongly fancied contender after winning three in a row by wide margins and he is just the kind of sleeper that so often wins these for JP.

Fellow leading Irish owner and business man Michael O’Leary has the ‘meagre’ three entries in comparison. Carlito Brigante ran horribly last time and I think he lacks the experience over fences. Campbonnais is a consistent performer in contests of a similar nature and the ground will pose no problems under a useful jockey claiming five pounds but he may lack the class to win.

His Excellency is the last of his trio and despite his tail swishing antics he is by no means the 50/1 shot he is priced as. However being only a four year old it would be a sensational performance to win this for a horse of his age.

Noel Meade has a poor record in this race but his representative Cross Appeal has the form to win this. Before the turn of 2012 he won the big handicap at Leopardstown, the Paddy Power Chase. His only run since was pulled up in the Irish Grand National.

Like many in the line up he cannot be ruled out completely but his trainer having not won a Galway steeplechase in the last five years is a major negative. Meade has three runners but while all are useful there are better options.

Oliver McKeirnan has Whodoyouthink as well as Follow The Plan. He could hardly have been more impressive at Punchestown at the end of May. The trainer said afterwards that good ground is important to him but it is far from that here. He destroyed respectable rivals that day and if he could repeat that on this testing ground he would surely be the strongest of contenders.

Deal Done: could run well at a big price
(photo: The Sun)

Daffern Seal is a non runner on account of the ground so Dermot Weld is represented by Prince Erik, and frankly barring divine intervention has slim chance of victory. No matter what distance he races at he appears to need further and is a frustrating sort.

Front runners generally do very well in this race and Deal Done is one who could run well at a big price. He has been aimed at some similar contests before over further and not stayed but I think the track and distance could suit him ideally.

He goes on any ground and although he is unlikely to be good enough to win, on testing ground where many may not get into it, he will be up front and can hold out for a place.

Following much deliberation it is probably best to stick with the horses who have proven form in higher class races and for win purposes it looks to lie between OUT NOW and Blackstairmountain with preference for the first named given he is proven over longer distances.

Verdict: Out Now – Blackstairmountain – Deal Done

Pintura has fuel to take Topaz

No surprises on day one then, Dermot Weld notches as many winners in two hours as he has had in the last four weeks and it is evident that we could be in for a dozen plus haul again this year.

The feature race on day two is the Topaz Mile at 5:35. A field of 16 line up for the €69k first prize and Dermot Weld’s Rock Critic heads the pack. He has three wins and a place from four runs at Galway and given that he looks twice the horse here as anywhere else he is highly respected.

The Weld team won this last year with Stunning View and Rock Critic follows an identical path of an unplaced effort at Ascot in the Hunt Cup. He concedes weight to all rivals and his task is not an easy one so minor money is a realistic expectation.

There are seven three year olds in the line up and while we have yet to see the best of all of them. Custom Cut is the shortest of them in the market. Having left the Dermot Weld stable in the off season he has won his last four races with a degree of ease but has risen 30lbs in the handicap as a result.

He is 12lbs higher in the weights than his most recent win so it is no easy task to concede weight to older horses and therefore is passed over.

Shane Foley gave a good ride to Sure Reef on Monday evening and the Michael Halford stable could not be in better form with five wins and six places from his last 17 runners. They have Regulation in this contest.

He was a close third in a conditions race last time behind two horse he would have been getting lumps of weight from ordinarily. He was given what looks a fairly hefty seven pound rise in the weights for that but is a good price all the same at 14/1. He could have been drawn better but if he can get a good position early he looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Pintura (grey silks) has since moved stable

Castle Bar Sling has won a bigger race than this in the shape of the Irish Cambridgeshire last August but he does not seem to like Galway with a fourth place the best he has mustered in six runs here.

Royal Blue Star was ran down late to finish runner up in this is 2011 and runs off the same handicap mark now and the seven pound riders allowance brings him into it.

Moran Gra certainly has the quality to be a leading contender but after such a poor run in this 12 months ago is best watched.

Finally to the two UK raiders PINTURA and Spa’s Dancer, the former is a consistent and high quality handicapper in the UK and has finished in the places in races at major festivals at Goodwood and York and a win at Chester’s May meeting.

He is having is first run for trainer Kevin Ryan and that is the only concern but a horse of such consistency one imagines that there was plenty of good opportunities for him across the Irish Sea so it is certainly interesting that he comes here.

This represents a drop in grade from what he is used to in my opinion and the booking of Joseph O’Brien and a plum draw in stall one are all points in his favour.

The other English raider is Spa’s Dancer, he has run well in Ireland before at The Curragh behing the reopposing Bold Thady Quill on Irish Derby weekend and was since third in a very hot contest at Sandown a race in which the 2^nd, 6^th, 7^th, and 8^thplaced horses have won or ran very well since. Chris Hayes who has ridden the winner of this twice before takes the reins.

As always with Galway’s big race of the day it is extremely competitive but the prices are lucrative if you can get the right one.

Verdict: Pintura – Regulation – Rock Critic

Dandy Nichollsmaster of such contests as 5:35 Goodwood

A quick look at the other races and the two mile handicap at 5:00 a field of 20 makes things no easier but Aughnacurraveel is in top form and any rain would aid the cause of this eight year old. He has a nice low weight and has attracted overnight support in the betting.

And finally if you fancy a bet on the UK fare today it is the start of Glorious Goodwood. The final race on the card looks a lottery but it is a race in which trainer Dandy Nicholls has saddled the winner on multiple occasions. He is doubly represented but Fitz Flyer looks the pick on jockey bookings.

He is having his fifth run since changing stables and last time at Ascot was by far his best. This is a drop in grade and provided the ground is good or better he should be throwing his hat in to the ring near the line.

Galway Monday Preview

IT’S here! What a week of racing we have ahead of us Galway and Goodwood and for the enthusiasts plenty of other interesting cards around the UK. Visit this blog daily for a preview of some of the racing. I will attempt to help narrow the fields and throw in the odd bit of advice on what looks a good value bet.

you are here for opinion so without further adieu let’s dive into the big race for day 1 at Ballybrit.

The best Seven Days of the Galway year ahead.

5:35 Carlton Hotel Galway City Handicap

Traditionally one of the hardest puzzles of the week, a field off 20 will line up under the amateur riders for the €42,000 first prize.

Firstly to the favourites - Clarach, it is very difficult to see her being far away as they pass the winning post and at the time of writing 8/1 looks extremely generous. She has won 3 on the spin, 2 of those over hurdles.

The drying ground is certainly in her favour, with a useful young rider Declan Lavery claiming 7lbs off the weight and being drawn well in stall 6 and Course form is in the book which is always a plus at Galway. She comes here amid doubts that she will make the line up for the hurdle. Her credentials are rock solid.

Earls Quarter will also prove popular given his connections but a long story short; despite catching the high quality Rebel Fitz out over hurdles here last autumn, I don’t think he is good enough and is plenty short enough in the betting.

A note of interest is that Robert McNamara who rides most of Dermot Weld’s in similar races is not on Midnight Music and instead goes on Scots Gaelic who managed a fourth place at Royal Ascot two starts ago. The latter was a bit disappointing last time despite the trip not being ideal but this will be much more to his liking and the stable is in form.

Another of Pat Flynn’s representatives is Prince Chaparral, he needs to improve slightly to win but could be a good each way play and despite a big price and having leading Point-to-Point rider Barry O'Neill on his back, he is passed over.

Citizenship won one of Ireland’s biggest handicap hurdles in January and was also an easy winner at Killarney last time out in first time blinkers. That race was ran in a very slow time and he is up in class and 10lbs higher now. While that is a big rise he still holds a strong chance but there is better value to be had.

Oilily: highest rated hurdler in the 5:35 field

Last year’s winner Fosters Cross comes here on the back of a fall last time over hurdles. He lines up off an 8lb higher mark when riders claim is considered and is now 10 years old so others are preferred.

Caim Hill arrives here in fantastic form after a win over fences in Kilbeggan’s feature event 10 days ago. A 10 time visitor to the winners’ enclosure and two from two on the flat he is difficult to oppose but the verdict goes to OILILY.

A remarkably consistent mare her only poor efforts came one after the other in an interrupted seven month spell last year. She has competed at a high level over hurdles in the past and is the highest rated of these in that code.

She has had a lot of placed efforts but with first time cheekpieces at Leopardstown on her last run stuck to the task well to win last time and a repeat of that effort should see her go well. At 14/1 she looks the best value in the races but Clarach makes plenty of appeal also.

Verdict:  Oilily – Clarach – Caim Hill

Elsewhere on the card the 5:00 Claregalway Hotel EBF Maiden looks yet again and as will be the case with maidens through the week to be between Aidan O Brien (L) and Dermot Weld (R).

Line Drummer represents Ballydoyle and ran a good race on debut only six days ago at Tipperary on soft ground behind a potentially useful stable mate. Provided he has recovered he holds leading claims.

Nearly all of Aidan O Brien’s representatives in this contest came after quite a recent run so it can be assumed the ground last week will not have blunted him. He is a son of Galileo and they usually improve with racecourse experience adding another positive to his chances.

Weld who is has won this in the region of 20 times in his training career has Thunder Mountain. He only beat one rival home in a strong maiden at The Curragh in May and despite his trainer’s record I would much rather be on Line Drummer.

I will not take the pleasure of sorting out the rest of the contests from you.

Away from Galway, course specialists Almaty Express and Rough Rock should give you a run for your money at Wolverhampton 7:00 and Yarmouth 3:50 respectively.

(Good luck and those of you who know me don’t be shy on donations should I ‘pox’ a winner or two)

China Can Rock Europe in Champion

IRELAND’S biggest National Hunt Racing festival gets underway at Punchestown tomorrow. A seven race card that will begin at the afternoon time of 3:40 for the fourth year representing that it must be successful in boosting attendances.

Willie Mullins has dominated this meeting for the past few years where he has turned ducks into swans on more than one occasion. Of course he also had and has a number of top class Grade1 contenders and if he has over 10 winners for the week one would not be surprised.

Sizing Europe (L) and Big Zeb meet yet again

The big race on the opening day is the Boylesports.com Champion Chase. Here we have the Big Zeb-Sizing Europe rivalry that stretches back to this meeting in 2007 where Henry De Bromhead’s charge led at the line. The two champions have met six times Big Zeb came out on top in this race last year. But the score is currently 4-2 in favour of Sizing Europe and it is not surprising to see him as an odds-on favourite here.

Finians Rainbow who defeated him at Cheltenham went on to look even better at Aintree and some feel but for the last fence mess up by the officials at Cheltenham that Sizing Europe would indeed have won.

The softened ground is not likely to play to the strength of Sizing Europe but the only one it is likely to suit is Realt Dubh. He comes here a fresh horse with only one run since finishing second to Captain Chris at this meeting last year when he was well behind in the Queen Mother on that occasion. However Noel Meade is without a winner since March and that is a slight concern.

A really interesting contender is China Rock. Ruby Walsh will ride and is two from two on the nine year old. He travelled well yet again in the Gold Cup before not staying, and finally connections have seen sense and dropped him in trip. Amazingly he has only ever had one run at the minimum trip, when second to subsequent Supreme Novices' winner Go Native.

China Rock: has beaten Sizing Europe albeit before over further

He is still available at 33/1 and I expect him to trade at much shorter in running tomorrow evening.

Last year’s third Captain Cee Bee and Gauvain make up the field but have a lot of work to do to win.

It is hard to see beyond Sizing Europe but China Rock is outstanding value and is by no means out of it and could cause an upset under Ruby.

One of the other Grade1 races on the card is the Evening Hearld Champion Novice Hurdle. A small field of five is all that will contest the €50k first prize. It looks to lie between Trifolium and Alderwood. Trifoulim was third behind Cinders and Ashes in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and with the forecast soft going is likely to be a short price favourite.

Alderwood won the County Hurdle, beating subsequent runaway Aintree winner Edgardo Sol into second, before following up at Fairyhouse. He is three years older than Trifolium so may lack the room for improvement of his younger rival.

It is unusual to be writing off Willie Mullins at Puchestown but all three of his horses are held by the two primaries mentioned.

Sir Des Champs looking for 8 in a row

Another poor turnout for a Grade1 contest is the case for the Growise Chapion Novice Chase. Sir Des Champs  is unbeaten over an obstacle of any description and will go off at extremely short odds (currently 1/4). There is absolutely no concerns over anything for him other than he has never ran over three miles or further. That is unlikely to be a hindrance though as he was powering clear in the Jewson and Willie Mullins had seen him as a horse for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival but went the Jewson route because of First Lieutenant’s presence there, who is also owned by Gigginstown.

Mosey Joe was second over hurdles here in 2011 and had looked impressive in three chase starts winning two (finishing 5^th in one where he sprawled on landing a few fences out when leading by over five lengths carrying 12 stone). He was ineligible for novice chases in the UK so has been given a break since. If he resumes in similar form he can be the one to chase home Sir Des Champs.

The big handicap on day one is the 4:55 where a field of 25 will face the starting tape. Former top level contender Snap Tie heads the field and will bid to overcome an absence of over 30 months. The fact that connections have persisted with the 10 year old suggests he still has something in the locker.

JP McManus has a number of contenders but interestingly AP McCoy does not take the ride on either Louisville Lip or Kandari both of which are off weights he can ride at. Kandari has had two runs for Jonjo O Neill and was behind subsequent Cheltenham and Aintree winner Ataglance before being brought down on his return to Ireland at the Fairyhouse meeting.

Ruby Walsh rides Ceol Rua suggesting that is Willie Mullins’ first string. Citizenship won the valuable Boylesports Handicap Hurdle in January and if bouncing back from defeat at Cheltenham is a major player.

Practically everything in the field holds some sort of chance but two I can suggest at fancy prices are Rory Anna and Benash. The first mentioned was in contention at Limerick on her last hurdles start before running out at the last. She always gives her running and the rain would have helped her chance.

Benash has been in and out this year but has put up some good performances in races that were beyond him. He was declared a non runner when entered in this 12 months ago. He ran very well until the approach to the second last at Fairyhouse over 2m6f. The drop back to two miles should suit (record of 21214 at the distance) and the rain will also have helped his chance. At 40/1 he is worth a bet despite his in and out form.

BEST BETS ON THE CARD: CHINA ROCK, BENASH (EW) and RORY ANNA (EW)