Market Rasen Preview Tuesday



Richard Johnson could be smiling tomorrow
with a good book of rides
photo: racing post



THE OPENER at 2:20 has a field of seven where a case can be made for all, conversely it is easy enough to oppose them all.

Enroller was a group horse on the flat and has run respectable in his last two hurdle runs. He is Noel Fehily’s only ride on the day, he has to give weight all round and may have to settle for minor money.

Langley’s best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground but he has only had 4 runs for Tim Vaughan and his record is F112. He has apparently improved for the addition of a tongue strap and with Richard Johnson back on board he is a player.

Osgood is a rare Mick Channon jumps representative. He was second to the Pipe’s “good thing”, Katchmore lost time. He appears here on the same mark. His best NH form is on a sound surface and he should be in the shakeup in an all round competitive affair.

An incredible tight market for the 2:50 with Union Island, having his first run over hurdles for Brian Ellison, the outsider of the quintet. He has been disappointing since returning from a break and is best watched.

The favourite at time of writing is Royal Entourage. He is up the weights after racking up a hat trick and is a leading contender again.

Hoback Junction was highly tried when with Lucy Wadham and ran ok last time to finish third. He appeared to lack fitness when fading late on but with that run under his belt he should be a major contender.

Presenting Ace and D’Gigi will need to show more than they have already to win but are by no means out of the reckoning.

Small but competitive fields are the order of the day. Not one for the each way punter.

The 3:20 is another tough contest to unravel. O Crotaigh has three wins and a nose margin second place at the venue and despite being six pounds higher than his last victory further progress is not ruled out from him back at this track.

His front running tactics should stand him in good stead in a small field. It is not hard to see why Midnight Sail is favourite. He is back in form following a layoff and went close on his most recent run behind a rival completing a four timer.

The step up in distance should also suit and his hurdle rating suggests that he is well in here.

A five horse class 5 chase where only one horse has a win over fences in the UK sounds like it should be straightforward at 3:50. But that horse, KERCABELLEC, is 14 years old, seven pounds out if the handicap and has had more horses finish in front of him than behind him this season.

No other horse jumps from the page with only slight appeal from the favourite Sacre Toi.

Kercabellec returned to the winners enclosure twice this time last year to end a four year drought. His mark is at the same lowly level here. He has gained five of his seven wins in March, the trainer has his horses in excellent form and at 20-1 he is worth a punt in an absolutely terrible looking race.

With absolutely nothing doing in the 4:20 and without some information not on the form book the only option I can see if getting financially involved is Charles. Whether or not he comes back fit after a Winter break is a question but if he does he should be better than the greater majority of these.

Dawn Commander (r): during his days in Ireland
photo: irishracing

If you are at Market Rasen and asking yourself will this day ever end, well there is just two more races and at last we see a couple of horses that can run faster than the ambulance.

Dawn Commander contested the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but was unable to make a serious impact into proceedings. He previously was just behind weekend winner Golden Call when conceding weight at Bangor in February.

On that form he will be very tough to beat. Finnegan Paddy has been consistent against some handy rivals all Winter but he is yet to get his head in front so is opposed.

Steve Gollings does well at the Licolnshire venue Lincolnshire  , he saddles All That Remains. The horse has not run over 3 miles since winning a Point-to-Point in Ireland. It does appear as if the step up should suit however as he was outpaced recently over 2m1f at Doncaster.

He looks the most potent threat to Dawn Commander.Lincolnshi

Jonny Rye was just denied by last year’s Champion Bumber second Destroyer Deployed as he was third at Southwell earlier this month, a repeat of that should see him be hard to pass again.

The Bumper at 5:20 concludes the action. House Party was well beaten last time at Newbury following a very promising debut behind Call Back who has done ok since. Getting a four year old allowance he should go close to winning.

Scarlet Fire who’s penalty is negated by the riders claim must hold a strong chance again. And of the debutants Scarlet Fire looks the pick for a combination that had a winner in the last few weeks.

BEST BETS: DAWN COMMANDER, KERCABELLEC

From Alfie Spinner to Virginia Ash, its competitive as ever!

NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE
This race is among the best at the festival with many future top class horses having contested it. Examples from the last decade are Hardy Eustace (1^st), Denman (2^nd), Peddlers Cross (1^st) and Rock On Ruby (2^nd).

The market suggests that Simonsig has the best chance, he has a big reputation and that is probably why he is so clear in the betting but his form so far has not proven anything.

MONKSLAND was an easy winner on soft/heavy ground at Navan in January and the runner up has since been a close second to Boston Bob and won another race also. Noel Meade and Paul Carberry won this with Nicanor in 2006 and Monskland could repeat the trick.

Ireland’s other main hopes are Bennefficient and Sous Le Cieux. They were first and second in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m2f but the step up should not be a problem for either.

Batonnier improved out of all recognition to win at the course in January but is a tad short in the betting on what he has achieved. Cotton Mill comes here unbeaten, he was a wide margin winner of his first two races and just got the better of last Saturday’s winner Ambion Wood in very testing conditions at Warwick earlier in the year.

As long as he has recovered from them exploits there is no reason he cannot go well at 16-1. There are 18 entered but it really only concerns a handful.

Grand Crus: Can he break the World Hurdle runner-up hoodoo
photo: thisiscornwall.co.uk

RSA CHASE

The connections of GRAND CRUS have opted for the novice route and leaving a stab at the Gold Cup for another year.

He was an impressive winner at Kempton on Boxing Day and the third that day Bobs Worth takes him on again.

Grand Crus was second to the all conquering Big Buck’s in last year’s World Hurdle but the last two runners up in that, Punchestowns and Time for Rupert, were both beaten favourites in this contest. Although trends for this do not particularly favour David Pipe’s grey the opposition have too much to prove to take him on at the prices.

Bobs Worth is three from three at Cheltenham but was beaten again last time at Ascot, maybe a return to a left handed track will suit, and on trends he is the most likely winner.

First Lieutenant has not been at his best all year but reportedly had a back problem in the early season. He beat the Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby a head in last year’s Neptune Hurdle and is a big threat on that form.

Paul Nicholls’ string usually does well in this contest and Join Together deserves a mention. His form has worked out quite well, he has won twice over fences at the track and is the only course and distance winner to line up. He has been kept fresh for this and is the choice of Ruby Walsh.

Can he defend his crown?
Sizing Europe beats Big Zeb in 2011
photo: betting.betfair.co.uk

Grand Crus is the one they all have to beat but is certainly not bulletproof.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

A field of eight goes to post that includes the winners from the past two years, SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb.

Moscow Flyer was the only horse older than nine to win it since 1998 but I do not think Sizing Europe has been reading much statistics. If anything he has looked even better this year when winning impressively on his last two starts.

There does not appear to be any real threat, Finian’s Rainbow was headed late on in the Victor Chandler Chase in January and was second in last year’s Arkle over this circuit.

Gauvain, Kauto Stone and Wishfull Thinking all probably prefer a bit further. Realt Dubh runs his first race of the season and there is no reason to see why Big Zeb can defeat his old rival.

Even money should not be a deterrent. Im So Lucky would be just that if he can make the frame given his horrific Cheltenham record, although he ran his best race in some time at Newbury behind Sprinter Sacre and could be one to look out for before the season is out.

CORAL CUP

Always one of the hottest races of the whole festival this year is every bit as difficult to unravel, David Pipe looks to hold a massive chance of gaining victory. He is represented by Star of Angels (4^th in this in 2009 before injury, winner last time), Consigliere (reverts from fences and better on a softer surface), POOLE MASTER (good novice hurdle form, well in at the weights, still unexposed) and recent French import Balgarry (most recent form is very strong but stepping up in trip).

Poole Master (right): well in on handicap rating
photo: Sportinglife.com

Like the Champion Chase the last two winners line up again –Spirit River and Carlito Brigante, the former needs to bounce back after losing his way over fences but Carlito Brigante’s only ever handicap run was in this last year and has ran well at a higher level in his career so may have a strong chance of repeating the trick carring 12lbs more.

Third Intention, Act Of Kalanisi , Get Me Out Of Here, and Final Approach all have a string claim. As you can see the race has plenty of strength and depth but it could pay to side with David Pipe with Poole Master and Star Of Angels both good each way prices.
Poole Master's jockey Chris Honour only needs one more win to ride out his claim. A goal after which he said he would retire, and what a story it would be if he could visit the winners enclosure at the Cheltenham festival on his last ride.

THE UNDERCARD

The Fred Winter is a bit of a lottery every year as the runners are relatively inexperienced and do not have a strong level of form. Its more about cleaning up the Triumph Hurdle than anything else.

But if you must buy a ticket for this lottery you could do worse than Royal Bonsai at 20-1. The John Quinn trained animal beat the consistent and subsequent winner Eagle Rock. He had a run on the All Weather in February so as not to increase his handicap mark. I have almost talked myself around now and he may well be worth an investment after all.

We could talk about ifs and buts about the Champion Bumper all evening, if I said to steer clear of the Fred Winter then definitely avoid this unless you are privy to reliable information. Yes many good horses do contest it but we do not know them yet. Royal Guardsman was a comprehensive winner of a strong Ascot bumber.

The Tizzards won this with Cue Card in 2010 and their charge can give a good account here.

The day kicks off with the four mile Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase and I see no reason to seek a big price here.

Allee Garde was a close third in a Grade1 at Leopardstown and he is taken to win for the father and son pairing of Willie and Patrick Mullins. Teaforthree and Harry The Viking look likely to play a leading part in the closing stages also.

So let’s hope it’s not the bloodbath some of us saw on day one. Have fun and God Speed!

BEST BETS: MONKSLAND, POOLE MASTER (EW) & STAR OF ANGELS (EW)

Cheltenham Day 1 - insert appropriate pun here

"Down the Hill they come"
photo: drawbias.com

TAKE A deep breath, to ready for both the roar and the long week of 27 races, many hours of study and analysis that lays ahead. Cheltenham the eyes of the world are upon you, the hopes and prayers of punters everywhere march with you.

So let’s get straight down to business

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

I find it rather staggering that there is so little Grade1 form on offer. Only Colour Squadron, Galileo’s Choice and Dylan Ross have close up finishes as runners up at the top level.

That being said they are all easily enough opposed as either the form has not worked out or the trainers do not do particularly well at the festival.

It is noteworthy that Davy Russell has opted for Trifolium, this one has been competing in intermediate grade on a few runs this year and easily took a soft looking Grade2 last time. If he is as solid on faster going we will see but could go well for the same combo that brought us Weapons Amnesty.

Darlan currently heads the market but on his best run (last time) he fell two out. That leaves us with too many questions but if he travels like that in this race he will surely be among the first few home.

Steps to Freedom absolutely ran away with an Aintree bumper last year with only the re-opposing Montbazon hanging onto his coat tails. The Jessica Harrington trained horse won two battling finishes on his most recent starts, if you can call them recent as he was last seen in November (assumingly on account of having raced on the flat during the Summer).

Prospect Wells was not far behind that day but if he is among the outsiders I do not see how Steps to Freedom is so much shorter in the market.

I think he will go well but will be found wanting at the end of the race.

TETLAMI gets the nod in the festival opener; before we even consider his form he represents a top combination of Henderson and Geraghty and is 14-1, which is big for them.

He won the same race at Kempton at Christmas as Menorah did en route to victory in 2010, he jumped very fast and smooth, travelled well and when he was asked for something at the end he willingly gave it. He comes here quite unexposed compared to others but the price is too good to ignore.

If you fancy chancing an outsider you could do worse than Distant Memories, a useful flat performer, he was going well until he made a horrendous mistake at the second last at Naas when behind Midnight Game and Dylan Ross but he could have gone very close otherwise.

ARKLE NOVICE’S CHASE

No matter what you think he beat you must say that Sprinter Sacre has been breathtaking in his chasing career to date. We could well be looking at an easy winner of the Novice Championship.

Cue Card (right); Can he fulfill his promise?
photo: sportinglife.co.uk

However he was behind Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme Novice where he faded late on. A year older and having had a breathing operation nothing has laid a glove on him since and Barry Geraghty who has well over half a century of Grade1 winners says he could be the best he has ridden.

Menorah has to prove his jumping can hold up but as a Supreme Novice winner also he must hold a claim.

Like Sprinter Sacre, the extra year in age appears to have benefitted CUE CARD greatly. He could only manage fourth when favourite behind Al Ferof last year.

He has always been touted as a top future chaser by connections and his form over fences cannot be knocked. The Tizzard’s six year old represents the best value alternative to Sprinter Sacre in a small field.

JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE

A race that is strong on stats, and although I do not like to adhere to them too strictly it helps to narrow this field of 19.

Quantitativeeasing heads the field after winning at Cheltenham in December over 2m5f. He has festival form also when second on this card in 2011 behind Divers. It would be a great achievement to win off 11st 12lbs but place money is probably most likely.

Hold On Julio has been all the rage for this contest since his Sandown win in early January but is available at a price of 13/2. Alan King and Robert Thornton have won this twice in the past decade and the lightly raced 9-y-o holds strong claims despite his sketchy jumping on occasion.

Our Mick has cannoned up the weights over the Winter and holds an each way shout, Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan are all probably too old according to statistics at least.

There is a former runner up of this contest in The Package. He has not ran in over 16 months but given his trainer that is not as major a concern as it could be. Baile Anrai is consistent, he has two wins and two falls in chases, he was still in contention in a very strong race when falling three fences from the finish and could be more than a lively outsider here.

Fruity O Rooney likewise, he was running a very good race before almost unseating at the last in the Sky Bet Chase and has only once been out of the first three over fences.

It is an absolutely wide open race and to make a selection I would chance PENTIFFIC. His rider gave him no mercy last time and he tired just before the last where he fell. He had not touched a twig before that and they did break the course record there over two furlongs further with Venetia Williams’ inmate cutting out the running.

The former Australlian trained animal is a tentative selection in a wide open race with The Package the other preferred option.

CHAMPION HURDLE

There will be no beating about the bush here- HURRICANE FLY will win barring, god forbid, injury. This year’s race is not a patch on last years and Willie Mullins’s superstar even looks value at 10/11.

No hot air with Hurricane
photo: guardian.co.uk

Zarkandar will have to improve to beyond his Triumph Hurdle win to challenge and has to overcome the poor record of five year olds. Binocular won a fairly poor renewal in 2010 and cannot be trusted and I think he could be a place lay if you like that type of bet.

Rock on Ruby and Oscars Well are closely matched on last year’s Neptune Hurdle form and they could fill the minor spots.

THE UNDERCARD

The Cross County is unravelable, the usual safe option of going with Enda Bolger does not look as easy this year with Garde Champetre beaten on all races this year (December win fell into his lap as he was well down the field when the leading group took the wrong course).

A NEW STORY will be the most senior contender at this year’s festival and given his excellent record over this course and is a good bet to make the first four yet again.

The Mares hurdle will probably see Quevega 10 lengths clear on the bridle yet again but I see little reason to get involved financially in it.

A rapid day one will have even the most enthusiastic of punter tired by the time the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase rolls around.

A field of 20 is not too easy to narrow, there was only 14 lengths between places first and tenth last season and I envisage a similar scenario this time around. TRIOLO D’ALENE, Bless The Wings and Hunt Ball are vying for favouritism.

The last mentioned has done nothing but improve all season he started off on a rating of 69 and seven races and six wins later he is up to 142.

Barry Geraghty has been bullish about the chance of Triolo D’Alene and he could be well ahead of this grade and is still improving, only five years old and if he is not in the shake-up it would be a surprise.

Bless The Wings has plenty going for him but may need more to win, course form is a plus however. 

Going Wrong is not something that you would do if you followed Davy Russell and Ferdy Murphy when they combine at Prestbury Park. The 9-y-o has been brought about quietly much like last year’s winner Divers and must be respected.

Triolo D'Alene has promise
photo: Getty images

Finally Quincy Des Pictons beat a few respectable opponents by a good distance at Chepstow over Christmas. He has been transformed by the move to new trainer Alan Jones and if he can show his form on a faster surface at 20-1 he could be worth a small saver.

BEST BETS: TRIOLO D’ALENE (EW),  and it’s obvious but Im going to do the cardinal sin of tipping – giving an odds on shot - and include HURRICANE FLY.