Monday, 30 January 2012

TAUNTON PREVIEW TUESDAY

THERE IS a respectable card on offer at Taunton on Tuesday. There are seven races for us to get through.
I don’t think many of you who will be going will risk a speeding ticket to make the first at 1:40 –the Alpha Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle.

The younger animals in it are well exposed and perhaps the most interesting contender is Venetia Williams’s Sendinpost. Once she got into the straight she flew home to only be beaten under 10 lengths after looking like a distant third was on the cards. The step up to three miles plus will suit and the trainer has been in great form all month.
That’s Some Milan looked like the winner on his handicap debut after the return from his layoff  having traded at 4/6 in running. That was his first run for Ian Willliams and is expected to be fitter for that and looks a strong contender here.
The others have plenty to prove but the market may be a good help in solving this one.

The 2:10 Bravo Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Novices´ Hurdle on past evidence looks to lie between useful flat performers Alwaary and Dildar. The former now with Rebecca Curtis contesting pattern company nine times when with John Gosden and won in listed company at three.
Will you be risking Sanctuaire? (picture:Getty Images)
Dildar was fouth behind Pour Moi in a quick time affair at Saint Cloud in May, a race that contained French Derby second Bubble Chic and Group2 winner Vadamar. Paul Nicholls’s inmate will be the likely favourite considering he is getting weight all round.
The others are not without a chance and Constant Contact, Sew On Target and Tymford could all play a part.

For just five runners the Charlie Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Novices´ Chase at 2:40 is a good looking race. Sanctuaire returns to the venue where he burst onto the scene with a comfortable defeat of the then unknown Grand Crus. He now tackles the larger obstacles after two disappointing runs over hurdles.
The fact the Ruby Walsh takes the ride gives confidence but it is difficult to invest in him given his enigmatic nature. Easter Meteor got off the mark last time with a comfortable win to live up to the expectation placed on him by his useful relatives. Though, he probably will not be able to dictate up front this time around.
Shammick Boy took a heavy fall last time and on last season’s hurdle form he would be right in the shake up here. The trainer did not start the year with the customary excellent run of form and that is a negative.
Since injury Midnight Sail seems to have lost his form that saw his finish sixth in an Albert Bartlett and is best watched here.

The 2m1f Delta Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Handicap Hurdle at 3:10 has two extremely interesting handicap debutants, Ted Spread and Ifyouletmefinish, there was not much between the pair behind Grumeti over course and distance in December.
Jeremy Scott’s representative was since a four length second to Pearl Swan (conceding 11lbs) and may reverse form with the former St Ledger hope.
Of the slightly more experienced brigade, Double Handful has proved just that since moving to Lawney Hill and with two easy victories and a 19 pound rise he still has plenty to offer.
Double Handful has moved from Venetia Williams but she now has Monetary Fund formerly with Nicky Henderson. With the exception of last year’s Cheltenham run the six year old has never been far away at the business end, that said a mark of 130 on seasonal reappearance is probably beyond him.
The value of the race may lie with Pantxoa. The King-Hutchinson pairing has been in red hot form with a four wins and two places from their last seven runners. Pantxoa did not go well up in trip last time but he was highly regarded by Alan King before the novice season did not quite go to plan. If he puts in his usual solid run he looks good for a place here.
Pascha Bere is another who may be worth considering with the cheekpieces back on (last win came with them on).

Again a case can be made for a great deal of runners in the 3:40 Command And Logistics Company 40 Commando Royal Marines Handicap Hurdle. Val Mondo is currently at the head of the market on account of his running on fourth behind the handy Poole Master at Lingfield and the current vein of form of the stable.
Is It Me has two ways of going and despite his colossal price probably isn’t the worst 50-1 shot you will see. Woodlark Island is on a dangerous mark but may be one for the drier ground in a few weeks time.
Arctic Watch clearly doesn’t take a lot of racing but holds frame claims and despite still being a maiden one that looks certain to play a part at the finish is Anay Turge who was second to subsequent winners the last twice.
Venetia Williams;
multiple chances
(picture: racing post)

The 4:10 Go Commando Handicap Chase has attracted a few whom are dropping in grade. By the time this rolls around Venetia Williams may have already had a good day but Renard looks her best hope tomorrow.
Fifth and fourth on his last two starts when fading late, the drop in trip will suit. Another who will appreciate the shorter distance is Nomecheki, he completely dropped the anchor last time at the third last. Before that he was fourth in the 32 Red Chase at Sandown and a reproduction of that would see him make the places at least.
Frankie Figg appears at his best over the national fences and it is hard to have Star Galaxy off a career high rating aged 12 and a single figure price despite his January brace of victories.
Renard looks the most solid option here.
There are a few stables that do well with their newcomers in the represented in the 4:40 Dbs/Ebf Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race. The market and paddock watch is probably the best hope of unravelling this. I don’t have the answer so good luck.



BEST BETS – RENARD, PANTXOA (EW)

Monday, 16 January 2012

Ayr Tuesday Preview

With Ayr having no expected problems with weather tomorrow it could be the only meeting on Tuesday. It is a decent card for a Wednesday and despite small fields they are engaging affairs.

Small fields the order of the day
(
picture - wikipedia)
We are underway at 1:10 with the Betvictor.com Maiden Hurdle. A field of 10 contest, Donald Mc Cain has the 60,000 guineas purchase Lexi’s Boy. He was a steady performer on the flat with four AW wins. He was pulled up when a short price favourite on his hurdles debut and better is surely in store here.
Cadore was a clear second on his first time over obstacles and normal improvement would put him in the frame here for a team in good form (Russell-Buchanan). He comes in after a recent run and has the least question marks of the line up.
Mill Bay was not disgraced on two bumper runs at Musselburgh but may have place claims at best.The pick of the Nicky Richards’ trio Find A Key had a subsequent two time winner behind him (conceding 5lbs) in a Hexham bumper and holds leading claims.

A more open four runner field you are unlikely to see at Ayr on a Tuesday than in the Bet Mobile At Betvictor.Com Novices´ Chase at 1:40.  Blenheim Brook heads them under a seven pound penalty but still well in on official figures.
He has an admirable record finishing first or second on 10 out of 13 rules starts and his two of his three runner-up finishes over fences were against useful rivals.
Dowd’s Destiny has only six runs despite being a nine year old. We still know little about him for a horse of that age and could well even improve and the stable are in great form (3 wins and 1 second in last 7 runners).
Trainer R TJ Wilson sends over Yes Tom from his Antrim yard. He has been keeping decent enough company and with Paddy Brennan on should give a good account.
Storming Gale completes the line up for a big stable but may be one for a handicap later this season but will have come on for his last run.
A tough one to call but despite having the worst chance on official ratings Dowd’s Destiny can make his presence felt over the 2m4f trip.

The 2:10 Best Odds Guaranteed At Betvictor.Com Handicap Chase over 3m1f looks easier to figure out. Sammy Spiderman has a good record at Ayr with four wins. Those wins took place on much softer going than is likely here, and he may be better over shorter despite a course and distance win (getting lumps of weight against veteran rivals), he receives weight again today and has a chance.
Quinder Spring has gradually filtered down the handicap but is still carrying the most weight here.  Has had a short break since fourth at Catterick in November and in first time visor for an inform team holds major claims.
Martin Todhunter is also hoping that a first time visor can see him into the winners’ enclosure with Allanard. The eight year old has not won over this far but has only tried three times and appeared to stay. Now only one pound higher than his last win and goes well for jockey James Reveley he can win here.

There is nothing to get excited about in the 2:40 Watch Live Racing At Betvictor.Com Handicap Hurdle over an extended three miles.
Another Miracle heads the betting for the McCain stable and is a worthy favourite. He had some middling form in 2010 and went close on his stable debut in November.
Gleann Na NDochais won stylishly in late December and has strong claims off a 12lb higher mark. That was his handicap debut and he was stepping up in distance. He steps up again here, is the youngest in the field and is the one to beat.
Only two places on offer with the seven runners but Delightfully is another to consider.

Old Magic looks like one of them JP McManus sleepers and it could be his time to awaken in the 3:10 Play Casino At Betvictor.Com Novices´ Handicap Hurdle.
Stormion is the only last time out winner in the field and is respected. There is little to say about most of the others. Market signals could be vital to unravelling this one so follow them.
Anthor small field but competitive looking race at 3:40, the Betvictor.Com Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Chase. Old boy Something Silver likes it here at Ayr with four course wins. He does not win often though and with only one win since February 2008 is passed over.
An improved run over course and distance last time puts Et Maintenant right into the shake up. Now eight pounds below the last winning mark and Grant Cockburn claiming eight more and with the ground to suit he can get his first win since 2010.
Primrose Time is up 11lbs for her latest run and conceding weight to all she may find life tough off a career high mark.

The 4:10 Bet Mobile At Betvictor.Com Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race concludes the Ayr card. Howaboutnow is the only winner in the sextet and is the one to beat.
Young Palm and Blazin White Face are the two most likely to challenge.

BEST BET – ET MAINTENANT

Saturday, 14 January 2012

Warwick Saturday Preview

Golden Chieftan has talent
(photo: sportinglife.com)


The first race is too tough an affair for me to sort out and it is easily passed over.
Therefore we shall begin in the 1:25 Betfred 1350 shops nationwide Novices´ Chase the three mile trip may be against Frascati Park who has done all his winning over shorter. Court Victory was disqualified last time and will need a better effort here to win.
Alfie Spinner had a win on very testing ground at Chepstow on Welsh National day and will go well here as he did when second in the Pertempts Qualifier on the card last season.
Golden Chieftan is one who will also handle the likely soft going that is often associated with Warwick but he has been let down by his jumping of late, if it has improved since he is the one to beat.

The Betfred The Bonus King Handicap Chase (For The Edward Courage Cup) is a very trappy eight runner contest. There is not much to separate them on paper.
Marodima was formerly useful and was a winner by some margin on Thursday on his first run since June. Despite that 53 length win over Massini Sunset he is not one to take a short price about here with only two days since that rout.
Roi de Rose was a comfortable winner on his second run last season and may have needed his first run  again this time round when second last time (just holding Massini Sunset for 2nd). The winner has won again since and coupled with first time blinkers he looks a major player.
Another who was second last time was Super Foreman and has shown solid form all season, Moon Over Miami was not far behind him that day and may finish ahead of him this time and I think the race will be run to suit Charlie Mann’s runner who could go well at a big price.
Educated Evans has gone up 22lbs in the handicap since his first win in October and will need to pull out more off top weight here.

Thehilloffuisneach heads the market for the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at 2:30, he has risen a great deal in the weights since his two December victories.
Last year’s winner Mobaasher has not shown much this season since his move to Rod Millman but was hardly in sparkling form before winning in 2011. 12 months on he is 12lbs lower and if he shows his best then he will make a mockery of his current 40/1 price.
Volador had some useful form before his lay-off but will likely be in need of this. Safran De Cotte won at Haydock in bottomless last time and should stay the new trip and is one to consider. The handicapper may have caught up with Water Garden, Petitfour has too much to do off 11-12 and his Cheltenham conquerer Dorset Square is yet another contender in a traditionally competitive Pertempts’ Qualifier.
Barwell Bridge (right) has strong claims
(photo: turfpix.com)
The selection here is Barwell Bridge, he ran really well before fading very late on at Wincanton behind two inform rivals and with a run under his belt back up in trip he is a major contender.

The 3:05 Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices´ Hurdle is safe to narrow to three. Ambion Wood was an easy winner of a maiden hurdle last time and has some good runs behind useful rivals in the book.
Highland Lodge beat a fancied rival in Diocles over the Haydock brush hurdles last time and is a worthy favourite for a stable with a couple of recent wins in this contest. Cotton Mill is his main rival and was an easy winner of both his hurdle starts. Admittedly he did not beat too much but he looked a good horse in the process.
This winner of this race will no doubt be a strong contender for Cheltenham in March. Given the amount of subsequent winners that have emerged from Emma Lavelle’s charge’s victories he is taken to win again.

The big one at Warwick on Saturday is the Betfred Classic Chase. The favourite is Sona Sasta for David Pipe. He ran subsequent Welsh National winner Le Beau Bai close at Chepstow in December. He was well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas though and jockey bookings would suggest he is second preference despite being favourite.
The stables other runner is Faasel. He has been second in 2 successive Kim Muir’s at the Cheltenham festival. He goes well fresh and is having his first start since his second place in the Bet365 at Sandown in April.
He does prefer good ground so any rain would hinder his chance. It is apparently currently Good/Soft at Warwick so that should be ok but it often rides softer than description here.
One who won’t mind soft ground is top weight Hey Big Spender. He appears to have a lot to do conceding about a stone all round but is not without a chance.
Blazing Bailey can come again (photo: racingpost.com)

Neptune Equester won at Haydock on Betfair day but was a 25 length fifth in the mud last time at Wetherby. The better the ground the better his chance but he may not be good enough anyway.
Blazing Bailey represents Alan King who has won the last 2 runnings of this race.
He couldn’t go the pace in the heavy going in the Welsh national but had previously run well for a long way in the Hennessy.
He rediscovered form early in the year last season and with 2 runs under his belt and given the trainer’s record in the contest he must be respected.
And finally Paddy Brennan takes a ride for former boss Nigel Twiston-Davies for the first time in a while. The pair team up on Major Mularkey with the trainer’s son Sam on old boy Hello Bud.
It is not an easy puzzle to solve but Blazing Bailey can come good again in the early year and go close for the King stable.

Much like the first race on the card the last one will have to sort itself out also.



BEST BET: BARWELL BRIDGE (EW) [ Mobaasher (EW)]

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Doncaster Preview Wednesday

Six Races on Town Moor (photo: drawbias.com)



THE SIX race mid week card at Doncaster gets underway with the Yorkshire Radio Supporting Yorkshire Racing Novices´ Hurdle at 1:05.

Gores Island is the among the more experienced in the line up, he won a decent novice hurdle last time when receiving weight but will have his work cut out under a penalty this time.
Despite drifting in the market Barenger was a seven length winner on day one of the Hennessy weekend on his racecourse debut. His inexperience did not inconvenience him there and he is likely to be popular for trainer and jockey in form.
Greenlaw was beaten less than five lengths in a listed Ascot bumper last time. Despite that event being a slowly run event there were plenty of useful rivals involved (winner prominent in Champion Bumper market) and he is one who could at least make the places today.

There is a hurdles newcomer in the shape of Theology now with Steve Gollings. The 125,000gs purchase has useful form on the level where he was fractionally denied in the 2010 Queen’s Vase when with Jeremy Noseda and is interesting.
Wordy’s Boy, Mountain Hiker and Pittodrie Star are others for the shortlist in a competitive 2m3f contest.

John Ferguson having great season
(picture: racingpost.com)
A 4yo hurdle at 1:40 (sponsored by Doncaster Racecourse Wedding Show 15th January) appears to easier to unravel. Art History was an improver for Mark Johnston and won his last two flat starts. His trainer John Ferguson has impressed in the stables first full season with a 42% strike rate and with the stables last three runners being successful Art History is the one to beat here.



Another useful recruit from the flat lines up for the Donald McCain stable, Gottany O’s a five time flat winner was sold for 130,000gs at Newmarket in October.
Blue Destination for John Quinn and Drumadoon who was a distant second to yesterday’s Taunton winner Kazlian are most likely to capitalise on any mishaps to the above duo.

A small field go to post for the 1stsecuritysolutions.Co.Uk Novices´ Chase over 3m. Three runners carry a penalty. The most experienced runner over the larger obstacles is Beneficial Reform he won over course and distance in November and was since behind the former Grade 1 novice Air Force One also at Town Moor. Cheekpieces now added and should not be too far away.

Edge of Town won on the back of over 20 months off track, he had solid novice hurdle form and provided he does not “bounce” after the long break he should have a say here.
Nicky Henderson’s Loose Performer is the highest rated of the line-up. His rider Jerimiah McGrath claims five pounds to give him even more in hand over his rivals. He is the youngest in the field of four and is a tentative selection to follow up.

Arctic Actress and Peedeeque were both course and distance winners last time and the pair are likely to head the betting in the Pegler Yorkshire Handicap Hurdle at 2:50. The latter was top weight that day and has claims off a seven pound higher mark. Arctic Actress’s form is in and out but must be respected coming from a big stable.
Corkage was in the lead when falling last time at Catterick over the larger obstacles. He has not won since the summer of 2009 when with Lucinda Russell but has had time off before his seasonal reappearance in November. Keith Reveley’s charge likes good ground and provided it is not too holding at Doncaster he can give a good account off top weight (has won off a higher mark).

In the 3:25 St Leger Tickets On Sale 6th February Handicap Chase it appears wisest to stick with those at the head of the weights. Quel Ballistic was effectively brought down by the aforementioned Corkage in the same Catterick race. He was favourite that day and has major claims again.
Bishophill Jack came out the right side of two almighty battles on his last two runs and is the one to beat in a hat trick bid provided those two December races have not emptied him.
Since the move from Alan King Quetzal has won twice for Mark Todhunter but is still as inconsistent as before. The addition of cheekpieces had a positive effect last time and coupled with a more prominent racing style saw him come home a five length winner at Newcastle. If they have the same effect again he should be involved up front.

The Download Free Doncaster Racecourse iphone App Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race concludes the action at 3:55. David Pipe’s Irish purchase Shotavodka heads the field under a penalty after a win at Tramore in October.
Hi George holds the best previous form of the line up when third behind subsequent Cheltenham New Year’s day second Chancery at Haydock.
Don Cantillon’s This Is Me is also worth a look, his only runner travelling up from Newmarket.

BEST BET on the Card: Corkage (EW)