Can it be done?

IS IT all just luck or is there skill involved? Are those professional out there really making a good living from it?

The activity I refer to is betting (or gambling if you prefer).

Betting on sporting events is not seen as an ‘acceptable’ way to make money. Everyone assumes that all money staked is ultimately lost. I am here to attempt to prove that theory wrong.

Many have lost fortunes in investments and trading on exchanges yet it is seen as a more acceptable way of doing the same thing - placing money on an outcome that you believe to be likely.

Picture: gamblingpokersite.com

I have heard a statistic that about one in every 20 to 30 people who gamble come out in the black. On this blog I will post everyday (that I have a bet) and I invite you to follow my journey to see what sort of profit is made.

From December 1^st I will embark on a journey to see if a significant profit can be made by investing on sporting events.

On a personal note, I have been betting for about 6 years but only since 2010 I think I can say “I know what I am doing”.  The last 6 months (since May 2011) have been a “career best” for me.

Racing will be a main betting sport. Pic: espn.go.com

My bets will predominantly be Horse Racing and Soccer with the occasional bet on other events. No games where you play the house such as Blackjack or Roulette will be included. There will be lay (to lose) bets as well as win bets included.

I will attempt to be as honest as possible with all details regarding betting throughout the journey. If you have any comments you would like to make follow me on Twitter (@con_clancy).

This is not a tipping service, I am not employing any magical betting systems, and I am not promoting gambling.

I do not claim to known it all and at this game we are always learning and over the next few months we will surely do so.

So join me on a journey, you could be part of something!

Five to follow 2011/12

The jumps season will be in top gear after this weekend. The deadline for the Totesport Ten to Follow is imminent and here are a few you may want to look out for over the course of the season.

Reve de Sivola

6-y-o. Trainer: Nick Williams

Reve De Sivola: could be a Welsh National type
Photo: Martin Lynch (racingpost.com)

This dour stayer, a former dual Grade1 winner looks due to bag a good handicap chase this season. I think he is an ideal type for the Welsh national. Jumps soundly, handles heavy going, stays as long as he is asked and has ran well at the track on a number of occasions.

He was placed at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals before being the beaten in the Grade1 novice chase at Punchestown.

Captain Chris

7-y-o. Trainer: P Hobbs

He progressed all the way through the season to win two Grade 1s, the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham and the Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown. He was unlucky not to win on his seasonal reappearance after unseating after the last when holding every chance.

He is versatile regarding trip and ground conditions. His trainer believes he will be better over longer distances. However the record of Arkle winners in the following seasons Champion Chase is remarkable and with that division not as competitive as it has been in recent years he could well collect a few prizes at shorter trips.

Until he runs in the King George, his reported target we will not know where his season may turn. Yet to be out of the first two home in 10 completed starts over obstacles so must be respected wherever he turns up.

Accordingtojodie

5-y-o. Trainer: N Henderson

Destroyed a decent bumper field at Galway on debut and was later sold. Now races with Nicky Henderson and got lost in the fog at Newbury last December on his first run for the new trainer. Has reportedly had a breathing operation since.

If the five year old shows a level of form like that easy Galway win he will be an exciting prospect over hurdles for the coming season.

Silviniaco Conti

5-y-o. Trainer: P Nicholls

Won his second chase start at Wincanton last time. He jumped well before fading late on his debut against Cue Card. He takes his place in an extremely competitive division this year but connections will hold no fear.

When Paul Nicholls first acquired him he stated he could be a future Gold Cup horse and that should not be taken lightly from the four time winning trainer. Nicholls thinks he may be better going right handed so the Feltham at Kempton on 26^th December could be a port of call for the son Dom Alco.

Silviniaco Conti: highly regarded
Photo: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Texas Jack

5-y-o. Trainer: Noel Meade

Has earned a late inclusion to the list after an impressive win at Clonmel on Thursday. He sluiced past the useful Make a Track under a cheeky Paul Carberry.

He has previously won the valuable Land Rover Bumper at Punchestown in May.

He has Grade1 aims after that win and Noel Meade has no doubts about his ability. Has won three from as many runs and looked very composed for a novice. He will be tough to beat and having looked more mature than many of his fellow novices who have turned out this season already.

He could be one to catch early in the season as a betting prospect given his current form.

National Hunt Season 2011/12 Preview

THE NATIONAL HUNT season is about to kick off in earnest right about now. As ever there is a plethora of rivalries and clashes to look forward to, Nicholls versus Henderson for the champion trainer title, Long Run the new star will look to repel all comers. Is there life in the old guard Kauto Star and Denman? Will Big Bucks’ stay unbeaten or can a worthy rival emerge to challenge this ‘monster’?

The answers to these questions will be resolved over the coming months. So let us take a look at the various top drawer divisions.

2m Hurdlers

It is all about Hurricane Fly after his five Grade1 wins last season and is a true champion with 11 wins from 13 races over hurdles. There appears to be no apparent challengers in Ireland for his crown and with last year’s champion hurdle second, third, fourth turning their hand to other codes/distances and many of the top novice hurdlers from 2011 going chasing Spirit Son, Zarkandar and perhaps an on song Binocular are left to challenge the Willie Mullins horse.

Big Bucks'
Photo: Google Images

Staying Hurdlers

Big Bucks’ hit his prime last season and his win at Aintree was simply sublime; with just two hurdlers to jump the commentator Mark Johnson described his might “Big Bucks’ just coasting on the bit and Ruby Walsh has time to adjust his goggles!” Putting it plainly he is the best horse in training and in Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars he will have two new rivals to swat like all who came before.

In Ireland Willie Mullins again holds all the aces with Mourad, Quevega and the aforementioned Thousand Stars looking likely to share the races between them.

2m Chasers

Sizing Europe took home the ultimate prize in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham festival but overall last year no horse dominated the division. Master Minded is going to race over further this season. Big Zeb is now 10 years old and may have his best days behind him. Captain Chris improved all season and finished with Grade1 wins in the Arkle and the Ryanair novice chase at Punchestown. Despite reports that he may be best over further the record of Arkle winners in the following years Champion Chase is very good (4 wins from 7 who tried) so he may well run at a variety of distances. Finian’s Rainbow, Ghizao, Realt Dubh, Golden Silver, and French Opera are others of note in the division and I’m sure all will hold strong chances of making the winners enclosure at some point.

Staying Chasers

Long Run leaves old guard in his wake in last years Gold Cup
Photo: Google Images

Last year’s Gold Cup signalled the end of an era. Kauto Star and Denman who have given us so much to savour in the last five years are coming to the end of the line and six year old Long Run is very much the leading contender for all the major prizes. With Weapons Amnesty and Imperial Commander out for the season others will look to provide a challenge to the Waley-Cohen’s animal. Diamond Harry will be back in action and will be one to follow early in the season as he is best fresh. Time for Rupert will look to fulfil the promise he failed to deliver on in last season’s RSA chase after a satisfactory reappearance in the Charlie Hall Chase.

Ireland appear to have a stronger division of staying chasers this year than in recent season’s  Bostons Angel, Jessies Dream, Quel Esprit and Quito de la Roque all expected to come through from the novice ranks to challenge for honours. Pandorama on soft going will be a force also.

Master Minded and Riverside Theatre will be tried at the longer distances but will probably end up over two and a half miles as the season progresses.

Next the novice divisions of hurdling and chasing will be examined and they look as interesting if not more so than in recent seasons. Plenty of top hurdlers from 2010/11 are turning their hand to the bigger obstacles and we will see them next.